【May 6, 2024】 – In April 2024, the “GUM Comprehensive MPF Index” fell by 0.2% to 230.5 points, while the “GUM MPF Equity Fund Index” rose by 0.6% to 304.8 points. The “GUM MPF Mixed Assets Fund Index” declined by 1.3% to 233.5 points, and the “GUM MPF Fixed Income Fund Index” dropped by 0.1% compared to the previous month, reaching 125.8 points. In April 2024, the average loss per member in the MPF was HKD 572, with a total gain of HK$ 5,449 for the year.
Michael Chan, Managing Director of GUM, pointed out that “The recent rebound in the Hong Kong stock market was primarily driven by five favourable measures introduced by Mainland China, which optimized the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism and attracted Mainland investors to invest in Hong Kong. Conversely, global markets experienced a pullback in April, mainly due to the Iran and Israel conflicts. Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have decreased once again, with current projections suggesting only one rate cut in 2024. It is anticipated that market volatility will increase as the United States enters the earnings season in May, and investors should exercise caution and closely monitor market dynamics.”
Martin Wan, Investment and Strategic Analyst of GUM, further stated, “Despite adjustments in US and Japanese equity funds, the overall outlook remains positive. The strong rebound in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets has turned losses into profits for Chinese and Hong Kong stock funds. Additionally, due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not begin cutting interest rates until September, conservative funds can still benefit from a high-interest rate environment, making them a stable choice for conservative investors.”
Table 1: Overall performance of MPF and average return in April
| Index | Value | April Return (%) | 2024 YTD Return (%) |
| GUM MPF Composite Index | 230.5 | -0.2% | 2.2% |
| GUMMPF Equity Fund Index | 304.8 | 0.6% | 3.8% |
| GUM MPF Mixed Asset Fund Index | 233.5 | -1.3% | 1.5% |
| GUM MPF Fixed Income Fund Index | 125.8 | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| Average MPF Gain/Loss Per Member Note 1 (HK$) | -572 | +5,449 | |
Analysis of Equity Fund Performance
In April, there was a notable rebound in Chinese and Hong Kong equity funds. The “Hong Kong Equity Fund (Index Tracking)” and “Hong Kong Equity Fund” performed the best, with gains of 7.1% and 6.4% respectively. However, for the year-to-date, they turned losses into profits with increases of 3.2% and 2.9% respectively. On the other hand, the “US Equity Fund” and “Other Equity Fund” experienced adjustments, with declines of 4.1% and 4.0% respectively. Although some stock funds underwent adjustments in April, overall stock funds recorded positive returns for the year-to-date.
Table 2: Ranking of Equity Fund Performance According to April 2024 Return
| Ranking | Equity Sub-category Fund Index | April Return (%) | 2024 YTD Return (%) |
| 1 | Hong Kong Equity Fund(Index Tracking) | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| 2 | Hong Kong Equity Fund | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| 3 | Greater China Equity Fund | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| 4 | Asian Equity Fund | 0.6% | 4.3% |
| 5 | European Equity Fund | -2.4% | 3.2% |
| 6 | Japanese Equity Fund | -2.7% | 9.2% |
| 7 | Global Equity Fund | -3.2% | 4.1% |
| 8 | Other Equity Fund | -4.0% | 3.5% |
| 9 | United States Equity Fund | -4.1% | 5.4% |
Analysis of Mixed Assets fund performance
In April, mixed assets funds experienced declines, primarily influenced by the bond market. The “Target Date Fund” and “Mixed Asset Fund- (>80-100% Equity)” had relatively minor declines of 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. However, funds with a higher proportion of bonds and a higher proportion of global stocks, such as the “DIS Core Accumulation Fund” and the “DIS Age 65 Plus Fund,” performed worse with declines of 2.7% and 2.2% respectively.
For the year-to-date, except for the “Mixed Asset Fund- (>20-40% Equity)” fund, “Other Mixed Assets Fund,” and the “DIS Age 65 Plus Fund,” all other funds still recorded positive returns despite the declines in April.
Table 3: Ranking of Mixed Assets Fund Performance According to April 2024 Return
| Ranking | Mixed Assets Sub-category Fund Index | April Return (%) | 2024 YTD Return (%) |
| 1 | Target-Date Fund | -0.1% | 3.0% |
| 2 | Mixed Asset Fund- (>80-100% Equity) | -0.3% | 3.3% |
| 3 | Dynamic Allocation Fund | -0.4% | 0.6% |
| 4 | Mixed Asset Fund – (>60-80% Equity) | -0.8% | 1.8% |
| 5 | Mixed Asset Fund – (>40-60% Equity) | -1.3% | 0.1% |
| 6 | Other Mixed Asset Fund | -1.6% | -1.3% |
| 7 | Mixed Asset Fund – (>20-40% Equity) | -1.8% | -1.5% |
| 8 | DIS Age 65 Plus Fund | -2.2% | -1.2% |
| 9 | DIS Core Accumulation Fund | -2.7% | 1.8% |
Analysis of Fixed Income Fund Performance
According to current market predictions, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates in September, and there is a high chance that they will only cut rates once. This has put pressure on bond funds, with the “Global Bond Fund” being the worst performer in April, declining by 2.5%. On the other hand, the “MPF Conservative Fund” and “Guaranteed Fund” have shown relatively stable performance, with increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. The “MPF Conservative Fund” has benefited from the high-interest rate environment, achieving growth of 0.3% in April and 1.3% for the year-to-date, making it the best performer among similar funds.
Table 4: Ranking of Fixed Income Fund Performance According To April 2024 Return
| Ranking | Fixed Income Sub-category Fund Index | April Return (%) | 2024 YTD Return (%) |
| 1 | MPF Conservative Fund | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| 2 | RMB & HKD Money Market Fund | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| 3 | HKD Money Market Fund | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 4 | Guaranteed Fund | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 5 | RMB Bond Fund | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| 6 | Hong Kong Dollar Bond Fund | -0.8% | -1.3% |
| 7 | Asian Bond Fund | -1.7% | -1.8% |
| 8 | Global Bond Fund | -2.5% | -4.3% |
Remarks:
The average MPF return per member is calculated using total MPF assets HK$1,183,036 millions of the previous month (31 March 2024). The number of MPF Scheme members was 4,754,000 as of 31 December 2023. The latest average assets per member was HK$248,851 as of 31 March 2024. The GUM MPF Composite Index return for April 2024 as of 30 April, 2024.
*The growth of all fund categories indexes is calculated by asset-weighted point-to-point growth. The data for February 2024 return is summarized from 1 April to 30 April 2024.
－ The End －
中文版本：
About GUM
GUM is a boutique consulting firm that provides solutions to corporate on MPF and employee benefits. We focus on people and that is why we put “U” in the very core of our brand “GUM”. Our priorities are always meeting the needs of our corporate clients and their employees, our strategic partners as well as all MPF members of Hong Kong. With our vast market experience and expert teams around actuarial, investment and employee communication, GUM leads the market to innovate, walking hand in hand with our clients to go faster and further.
Media Enquiries, please contact:
GUM
Miss Cherry Chan / Miss Karen Siu
Phone: (852) 9126-9200 / (852) 6011-5603
Email: : cherrychan@gumhk.com / karensiu@gumhk.com
Website: www.gumhk.com
This document provided the information on an “AS IS” basis. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any of the information contained in this document. Some information contained in this document contains forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “expect” and similar expressions are also intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not historical facts. Rather, these forward-looking statements are based on the current beliefs, assumptions, expectations, estimates, and projections of our management. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict. Consequently, actual results could differ materially from those expressed, implied or forecasted in these forward-looking statements. Reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.