Monthly Investment News

每月投資展望

Press Release (MPF)

新聞稿（強積金）

Press Release (Employee Benefits)​

新聞稿（僱員福利）

Newsroom

GUM: October 2026 Outlook

GUM: 2026年10月投資展望

September 2026 Investment Outlook: U.S. – Neutral | Europe – Neutral | Japan – Neutral | China and Hong Kong – Neutral | Asia – Neutral

Global equities regained momentum in August, with artificial intelligence capital expenditure, resilient corporate earnings, and technology product exports remaining the principal sources of support. Nevertheless, the overall outlook across all regions remains neutral. The most notable change this month is that market expectations for major central banks have shifted from rate cuts to rate increases: energy prices have pushed inflation higher, tightening expectations have emerged simultaneously in the United States, Europe, and Japan, and global long-dated bond yields have risen to fresh cycle highs. The U.S. market continues to benefit from the AI investment cycle and strong corporate earnings, although persistently high inflation and a more hawkish Federal Reserve limit further upside. In Europe, energy-driven inflation has intensified and a September rate increase by the European Central Bank is highly likely, but the region lacks an AI growth engine. In Japan, exports are strong and inflation is edging towards target, yet fiscal expansion, rate increases, and energy dependence create multiple pressures. High-end manufacturing in China and Hong Kong remains resilient, but domestic demand and investment continue to be weak. Asia is supported by AI-related exports, although capital is rotating rapidly within the region and energy and interest-rate risks have yet to subside. Investors should maintain geographical diversification and remain selective, focusing on quality companies with high earnings visibility, stable cash flows, and reasonable valuations.

2026年9月投資展望：美國-中性｜歐洲-中性｜日本-中性｜中國及香港-中性｜亞洲-中性


全球股市於 8 月重拾升勢，人工智能資本開支、企業盈利韌性及科技產品出口仍是主要支撐，但各地區整體展望維持中性。本月最值得留意的變化，是市場對主要央行的預期已由減息轉為加息：能源價格推高通脹，美國、歐洲及日本同步出現緊縮預期，環球長債孳息升至今輪週期高位。美國市場受惠於人工智能投資週期及強勁企業盈利，惟通脹居高不下及聯儲局轉鷹限制上行空間。歐洲能源通脹升溫，歐洲央行 9 月加息機會甚高，但區內欠缺人工智能增長引擎。日本出口強勁，通脹逐步靠近目標，惟財政擴張、加息及能源依賴形成多重壓力。中國及香港的高端製造維持韌性，但內需及投資持續疲弱。亞洲受人工智能出口帶動，惟資金在區內快速輪動，能源及利率風險仍待消化。投資者宜保持地域分散及選擇性，聚焦盈利能見度高、現金流穩定及估值合理的優質企業。

GUM: September 2026 Outlook

GUM: 2026年9月投資展望

<div>August 2026 Outlook: United States &ndash; Neutral | Europe &ndash; Neutral | Japan &ndash; Neutral | China &amp; Hong Kong &ndash; Neutral | Asia ex‑Japan &ndash; Neutral&nbsp;</div>
<div>&nbsp;</div>
<div>Global equity markets remain supported by AI investment, semiconductor demand, resilient corporate earnings and technology exports, but the regional outlook is broadly neutral. In the U.S., strong AI-related capital expenditure continues to support equities, although weaker employment data, elevated valuations and persistent inflation limit further upside. Europe benefits from stable earnings, attractive valuations and dividend yields, but economic growth and participation in the AI value chain remain limited. Exports and technology demand support China and Hong Kong, while weak domestic demand and policy uncertainty remain key concerns. Japan faces greater volatility amid monetary policy normalisation and foreign-exchange risks. Across Asia, semiconductor and electronics exports remain resilient, but foreign-capital outflows, high technology-sector concentration, rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to constrain market performance. Investors should remain selective and focus on quality companies with stable cash flows, reasonable valuations and sustainable exposure to AI, infrastructure and technology investment.</div>
<div><img src="blob:https://cms.gumhk.com/6a6aa4b3-bbd9-4522-aca0-e4aaaea3aff3"></div>
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<p style="language: en-US; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; text-align: left; direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; mso-line-break-override: none; word-break: normal; punctuation-wrap: hanging;">🇺🇸&nbsp;United States - Neutral
<p style="language: en-US; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; text-align: left; direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; mso-line-break-override: none; word-break: normal; punctuation-wrap: hanging;">&nbsp;
<p style="language: en-US; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; text-align: left; direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; mso-line-break-override: none; word-break: normal; punctuation-wrap: hanging;">AI momentum continues to support the market, but weakening employment and external risks limit upside potential 
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The outlook for the U.S. market remains neutral. In the short term, AI-related capital expenditure, strong corporate earnings resilience, and investment in technology infrastructure continue to be important drivers supporting U.S. equities. Major indices have recently reached new highs, mainly driven by strong results from AI-related companies. Palantir raised its full-year revenue forecast following a surge in its share price, while Caterpillar benefited from demand for power generation and construction equipment associated with the development of AI data centres. Caterpillar also upgraded its revenue growth forecast, reflecting the continued expansion of AI investment from semiconductors and cloud services into industrial equipment and infrastructure. However, valuations and market concentration in AI-related stocks remain relatively high, and these risks should not be overlooked.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the U.S. economy remains resilient, although the drivers of growth are beginning to diverge. U.S. economic activity continues to expand at an annual rate of more than 2%, while business investment&mdash;particularly investment driven by AI demand&mdash;remains strong. However, core inflation is still close to 3%, above the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s 2% target. Together with rising energy prices, this means inflationary risks remain tilted to the upside, limiting the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s scope to shift towards monetary easing in the near term.
The latest nonfarm payroll data weakened significantly, adding uncertainty to the economic outlook. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 23,000 in July, far below the market&rsquo;s earlier expectation of an 80,000 increase. In addition, employment figures for May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, indicating that employment growth was weaker than initially estimated. Although the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, this was mainly due to the labour-force participation rate falling to 61.4%, suggesting that the labour market has not improved broadly and that companies remain cautious about hiring.
🇪🇺 Europe - Neutral
Lack of AI-driven growth support keeps the overall outlook for European markets neutral
The outlook for European markets remains neutral. Corporate earnings continue to provide important support for the region. Recent earnings results from European companies have been better than expected, prompting upward revisions to second-quarter earnings growth forecasts and supporting investor sentiment. Meanwhile, valuations for the MSCI Europe Index remain relatively moderate compared with U.S. equities. As of the end of July 2026, the index was trading at approximately 15.0 times forward earnings, with a dividend yield of around 2.8%, indicating that European markets remain reasonably attractive in terms of valuation and dividend income.
Investment in AI and technology is also providing positive support for European markets. Eurozone economic growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations, partly supported by AI investment, government spending, and resilient consumer demand. Technology and semiconductor stocks also continue to benefit from global AI demand. However, compared with the United States, Europe&rsquo;s participation in the AI value chain remains relatively limited. The smaller scale and weaker earnings momentum of Europe&rsquo;s technology sector make AI less likely to become an independent core driver of sustained market gains.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the European economy remains resilient, but growth momentum is relatively weak. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% quarter on quarter in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations, although the full-year growth outlook remains subdued. Rising energy costs, weaker external demand, and trade uncertainty may continue to weigh on industrial activity, exports, and consumer spending.
Overall, the MSCI Europe Index has delivered steady performance this year, reflecting continued support from corporate earnings, valuations, and dividend returns. Nevertheless, Europe&rsquo;s economic growth momentum remains weak, while the benefits from AI are relatively limited. Risks associated with energy prices, inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions also persist. Therefore, maintaining a neutral view on European markets remains appropriate at this stage.
🇯🇵 Japan - Neutral
Japan&rsquo;s market outlook remains neutral amid monetary policy normalisation and rising foreign-exchange risks
The outlook for the Japanese market is neutral. Although Japanese equities have performed strongly this year, driven by themes such as AI, semiconductors, and corporate reform, market volatility has increased significantly in recent weeks. Japanese equities remain highly dependent on AI- and semiconductor-related stocks. When global technology stocks or the U.S. semiconductor sector undergo a correction, the Tokyo market is also vulnerable to pressure. The Nikkei Index recently declined as heavily weighted stocks such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and SoftBank Group came under pressure, reflecting the market&rsquo;s high concentration and the increased risk of short-term profit-taking.
Regarding monetary policy, the Bank of Japan voted at the end of July to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.0%. However, the central bank also indicated that, if inflationary risks persist, the pace of rate increases may need to be faster than previously expected. This has raised market expectations for an interest-rate increase in September or later. Rising interest rates may support the Japanese yen and banking stocks, but they could also increase corporate financing costs and place pressure on highly valued growth stocks.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Japan&rsquo;s economy continues to recover moderately, although momentum has weakened. The Japanese government lowered its real GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year from 1.3% to 0.9%, mainly because geopolitical tensions have pushed up energy prices, weighing on household consumption and corporate earnings. Although capital expenditure and wage growth continue to provide some support, Japan&rsquo;s heavy dependence on imported energy means that volatility in oil prices and the yen may continue to weaken real purchasing power.
External and foreign-exchange risks also require attention. The yen previously weakened to around &yen;163 per U.S. dollar, before rebounding amid market speculation that the Japanese authorities might intervene in the currency market. This suggests that policymakers are increasingly concerned about excessive yen weakness. Further yen depreciation would intensify imported inflation and increase household costs. However, a rapid appreciation of the yen could weaken the earnings outlook for exporters, leaving the market facing risks in both directions.
Therefore, a slightly cautious neutral stance on the Japanese market remains appropriate at this stage. From an investment-strategy perspective, investors may wish to avoid excessive concentration in highly valued AI and semiconductor heavyweights and focus instead on companies that are relatively well positioned to benefit from a rising-interest-rate environment, stable cash flows, and stronger defensive domestic demand.
🇨🇳 China &amp; Hong Kong - Neutral
Exports and technology themes provide support, but weak domestic demand and policy uncertainty remain key concerns
The outlook for the China and Hong Kong markets remains neutral. Market sentiment in mainland China and Hong Kong has improved recently, mainly supported by stronger-than-expected export data, sustained AI-related demand, and a rebound in technology stocks. China&rsquo;s exports increased by 23.9% year on year in July, exceeding market expectations. Exports of high-tech products and semiconductors were particularly strong, indicating that global investment in AI infrastructure continues to support China&rsquo;s manufacturing sector and technology supply chain.
From a macroeconomic perspective, China&rsquo;s economy continues to show a divergence between relatively strong external demand and weak domestic demand. Although exports and high-end manufacturing have performed comparatively well, consumption, private-sector investment, and property-market activity remain weak. China&rsquo;s Consumer Price Index rose by only 0.5% year on year in July, while the decline in the Producer Price Index moderated to 3.5%. These figures suggest that domestic demand has yet to strengthen significantly, while companies&rsquo; pricing power and earnings recovery remain constrained.
On the policy front, tighter regulation has created uncertainty for the China and Hong Kong markets. Mainland tax authorities have recently begun imposing a 20% individual income tax on the investment income of Hong Kong insurance policies held by mainland residents, covering policy dividends and interest income from prepaid premiums. At the same time, offshore trusts have been brought under a more clearly defined individual income-tax regulatory framework. Related asset transfers, income distributions, and trust terminations may all be subject to tax-reporting and payment requirements.
These measures reflect the central government&rsquo;s tighter oversight of cross-border asset allocation and offshore wealth management. They may reduce the appeal of Hong Kong&rsquo;s insurance, private-banking, and trust services to high-net-worth mainland clients, while creating short-term valuation pressure on related financial stocks. Therefore, maintaining a neutral outlook on the China and Hong Kong markets remains appropriate at this stage.
<p style="language: en-US; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; text-align: left; direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; mso-line-break-override: none; word-break: normal; punctuation-wrap: hanging;">Asia - Neutral&nbsp;
<p style="language: en-US; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; text-align: left; direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; mso-line-break-override: none; word-break: normal; punctuation-wrap: hanging;">&nbsp;
<p style="language: en-US; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; text-align: left; direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; mso-line-break-override: none; word-break: normal; punctuation-wrap: hanging;">Asia&rsquo;s market outlook remains neutral: Semiconductor demand provides support, while capital-flow and energy risks have yet to subside
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The outlook for Asian markets remains neutral. The region&rsquo;s technology and AI-related industries continue to provide key support, particularly in Taiwan, South Korea, China, and Singapore, which are benefiting from global investment in AI infrastructure and demand for semiconductors. Taiwan&rsquo;s exports increased by 32.9% year on year in July, while exports of electronic components surged by 50.5%. China&rsquo;s exports also rose by 23.9% year on year in July, demonstrating the continued resilience of Asia&rsquo;s technology supply chain.
However, the strong rally in AI-related stocks has prompted the market to pay closer attention to valuation and concentration risks. Foreign investors recorded net outflows from Asian equities for the ninth consecutive month in July, with Taiwan and South Korea experiencing the most significant outflows. This was mainly due to concerns over the payback period for capital expenditure and the sustainability of semiconductor demand.
From a macroeconomic perspective, economic performance across Asia remains mixed. South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore continue to benefit from semiconductor and electronics exports and are showing relatively strong growth momentum. India&rsquo;s economy also remains resilient, with the central bank keeping interest rates unchanged and raising its full-year GDP growth forecast to 6.7%. However, some energy-importing economies continue to face pressure from oil prices, inflation, and currency movements.
Regarding external risks, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and energy prices remain key sources of uncertainty. Recent U.S.&ndash;Iran negotiations have reached an impasse, pushing Brent crude oil prices to approximately US$88 per barrel. Higher oil prices could increase imported inflation and corporate costs across Asia while weakening investors&rsquo; appetite for risk.
Overall, AI, semiconductor, and electronics exports continue to provide structural support for Asian markets. Nevertheless, high concentration in technology stocks, foreign-capital outflows, energy-price volatility, and geopolitical risks continue to limit the potential upside. Therefore, maintaining a neutral view on Asian markets remains appropriate at this stage.
&nbsp;－ The End －
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August 2026 Outlook: United States – Neutral | Europe – Neutral | Japan – Neutral | China & Hong Kong – Neutral | Asia ex‑Japan – Neutral 
 
Global equity markets remain supported by AI investment, semiconductor demand, resilient corporate earnings and technology exports, but the regional outlook is broadly neutral. In the U.S., strong AI-related capital expenditure continues to support equities, although weaker employment data, elevated valuations and persistent inflation limit further upside. Europe benefits from stable earnings, attractive valuations and dividend yields, but economic growth and participation in the AI value chain remain limited. Exports and technology demand support China and Hong Kong, while weak domestic demand and policy uncertainty remain key concerns. Japan faces greater volatility amid monetary policy normalisation and foreign-exchange risks. Across Asia, semiconductor and electronics exports remain resilient, but foreign-capital outflows, high technology-sector concentration, rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to constrain market performance. Investors should remain selective and focus on quality companies with stable cash flows, reasonable valuations and sustainable exposure to AI, infrastructure and technology investment.

2026年8月投資展望：美國-中性｜歐洲-中性｜日本-中性｜中國及香港-中性｜亞洲-中性


全球股市繼續受到人工智能投資、半導體需求、企業盈利韌性及科技產品出口支持，但各地區整體展望維持中性。美國市場受惠於人工智能相關資本開支，惟就業數據轉弱、估值偏高及通脹持續，限制進一步行空間。歐洲企業盈利、估值及股息回報仍具支持，但經濟增長動力偏弱，參與人工智能產業鏈的程度亦相對有限。中國及香港市場受出口及科技需求帶動，惟內需疲弱及政策不確定性仍是主要風險。日本市場則面對貨幣政策正常化、日圓波動及外匯風險。亞洲半導體及電子產品出口維持韌性，但外資流出、科技股集中度偏高、能源價格上升及地緣政治不確定性仍限制市場表現。投資者宜保持選擇性，聚焦現金流穩定、估值合理，以及具可持續人工智能、基建和科技投資機遇的優質企業。

GUM: August 2026 Outlook

GUM: 2026年8月投資展望

July 2026 Outlook: United States – Slightly Positive | Europe – Neutral | Japan – Slightly Positive | China & Hong Kong – Neutral | Asia ex‑Japan – Neutral 

Global equity markets remained broadly supported by continued AI investment, semiconductor demand and selective policy stimulus, although regional performance diverged. The U.S. and Japan retain slightly positive outlooks due to strong AI-related earnings, improving economic activity and supportive policies, while Europe, China and Hong Kong, and broader Asia remain neutral amid weak growth, geopolitical tensions and elevated market concentration. AI hardware exposure has benefited mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea more than software-heavy Hong Kong, but strong year-to-date gains and the SK Hynix ADR offering increase the risk of near-term profit-taking across Asian technology markets. Overall, investors should remain selective, favouring high-quality companies with strong balance sheets, clear AI monetisation potential and exposure to long-term fiscal, infrastructure and technology investment themes.

2026年7月投資展望：美國-偏好｜歐洲-中性｜日本-偏好｜中國及香港-中性｜亞洲-中性

全球股市整體仍受到人工智能投資、半導體需求及具針對性的政策刺激所支持，但各地區表現持續分化。受惠於強勁的人工智能相關盈利、經濟活動改善及政策支持，我們對美國及日本股市維持略為正面的看法；至於歐洲、中國及香港，以及整體亞洲市場，則因經濟增長偏弱、地緣政治風險及市場集中度偏高而維持中性觀點。人工智能硬件相關企業較為集中於中國內地、台灣及南韓，因而較香港以軟件及互聯網平台為主的市場表現更佳。然而，亞洲股市年初至今升幅已大，加上SK海力士發行美國預託證券，或增加區內科技股短期獲利回吐的風險。整體而言，投資者宜維持選股取向，側重資產負債表穩健、具清晰人工智能變現能力，並受惠於長期財政、基建及科技投資趨勢的優質企業。

GUM: July 2026 Outlook

GUM: 2026年7月投資展望

May 2024 Outlook: United States-Neutral | Europe-Slightly Positive | Japan-Slightly Positive | China-Slightly Positive | Asia-Neutral The U.S. inflation index exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of rate cut expectations. The European economy continues to perform well, and the market expects that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in June. Both China and Hong Kong have experienced stronger-than-expected economic growth, triggering a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market. However, the Asian economy shows divergent trends, and a wait-and-see attitude is currently prevailing.
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🇺🇸 United States-Neutral Inflation Index Exceeded Expectations Again, Leading To a Cooling of Rate Cut Expectations The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.5% year-on-year in March, exceeding expectations. In addition, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for the first quarter remained high, with a quarterly increase of 3.4%, marking the largest gain in a year. Persistent inflation will dampen expectations of rate cuts, with an anticipated 1-2 rate cuts expected in 2024. The non-farm payroll figures for April in the U.S. fell short of expectations, with an increase of only 175,000 jobs, but the market still anticipates that rate cuts will not begin until September. Although the U.S. stock market experienced some adjustments in April, it is still in an upward trend and is expected to remain at high levels. However, further evaluation of the market conditions will be necessary based on the performance in May.
🇪🇺 Europe-Slightly Positive Europe Economy Started The Year On a Positive Note; Expects Interest Rate Cut in June In the first quarter of 2024, the Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded expectations, recording a growth of 0.3%. The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April also surpassed the threshold for the second consecutive month, indicating strong manufacturing activity. Additionally, inflation has declined to 2.4%, leading to market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates earlier than the United States. ECB Vice President Kinduros has stated that there is a high likelihood of rate cuts in June, which is beneficial for the performance of European stock markets.
🇯🇵 Japan-Slightly Positive Japanese Econnony Data Remains Favorable With The Yen Slightly Weak Despite a slight adjustment in the Japanese market in April this year, with the Nikkei index pulling back from 40,646 points to 38,312 points, it has remained at high levels. Additionally, Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has shown positive year-on-year performance, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased by 2.7% compared to the previous year, in line with market expectations, indicating favorable economic data in Japan. However, investors need to be mindful of the volatility in the exchange rate of the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY exchange rate briefly rose to the 158 level in April before stabilizing around the 155 level.
🇨🇳 China-Slightly Positive China &amp; HK Q1 GDP Growth Surpassed Expectations, CSRC Supports HK Stock Market With New Measures China’s economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, surpassing the market expectation of 4.8%. Hong Kong also experienced economic growth of 2.7% in the first quarter of this year. Despite the previous sluggish performance of the Hong Kong stock market, the central government has taken measures to enhance market liquidity by expanding policies. For example, they have relaxed the eligibility criteria for stock ETF products under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program, attracting more investor attention. As a result, the market has shown a significant rebound, with the Hang Seng Index returning to the 18,000-point level. It is believed that the rebound in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets will continue for some time. However, in the long run, it is still necessary to closely monitor the issues related to the housing crisis and changes in the economic situation.
Asia-Neutral China Leads Asia’s Economy Recovery; Regional Economies Differentiate Benefiting from the rebound in the Chinese market, the overall Asian market has also seen an upswing. However, the performance of Asian countries has been uneven. Vietnam has been affected by weak overseas demand, and the recovery of its exports and manufacturing activities has been less than ideal, resulting in a slowdown in GDP growth to 5.66% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the Indian stock market has experienced a recent setback, compounded by ongoing elections in India, leading investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach for the time being.
－ The End －
中文版：
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2024年5月投資展望：美國-中性｜歐洲-偏向正面｜日本-偏向正面｜中國-偏向正面｜亞洲-中性 美國通脹指數超出預期，導致減息預期降溫。歐洲經濟持續良好，市場預期歐洲央行將在6月進行減息。中國和香港的經濟增長均超出預期，引發港股市場的反彈。然而，亞洲經濟出現分化，暫持觀望態度。
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🇺🇸 美國-中性 通脹指數再超預期 減息預期降溫 美國三月消費者物價指數（CPI） 同比上升至3.5%，超出預期。 加上第一季個人消費支出(PCE) 仍然高企， 按季上升3.4%，是一年裏的最大升幅。 頑固的通脹將會令減息預期降溫， 2024年減息次數預期1-2次。美國四月的非農就業人數遜預期，只增加17.5萬，但市場仍預期9月才會開始減息。雖然美股在四月出現調整，但美國股市仍處於上升趨勢，預計仍可保持在高位。然而，仍需觀察五月份的業績季以進一步評估市場情況。

🇪🇺 歐洲-偏向正面 歐洲經濟開局良好 預期6月減息 2024年歐元區第一季國內生產總值市場超出預期，錄得0.3%的增幅。4月份的綜合採購經理人指數 (PMI) 也連續第二個月超越榮枯線，反映製造業活動蓬勃。加上通脹已經回落至2.4%，令市場預期歐洲央行將會比美國更早減息。歐洲央行副行長金多斯表示6月減息機會很大，利好歐洲股票市場走勢。

🇯🇵 日本-偏向正面 日本數據仍然利好 日圓偏軟 儘管日本市場在今年四月經歷了輕微調整，日經指數從40,646點回調至38,312點，但仍保持在高位橫行。此外，日本的國內生產總值（GDP）同比數據表現良好，並且日本的消費者物價指數（CPI）同比增長了2.7%，符合市場預期，顯示日本的經濟數據仍然利好。然而，投資者需要注意日圓匯價的波動，美元兌日圓匯率在四月一度升至158水平，儘管後來回穩至155水平。

🇨🇳 中國-偏向正面 中港首季GDP增長皆勝預期 中證監5招撐港股 中國在2024年首季經濟按年增長了5.3%，超出市場預期的4.8%。香港的經濟增長也在今年首季達到2.7%。儘管港股曾經處於低迷狀態，但中央政府通過擴大政策來提升港股的流動性，例如放寬了滬深港通下股票ETF合資格產品的範圍等，吸引了更多投資者的關注，市場出現明顯反彈，恒生指數重回18,000點水平，相信中國和香港市場的反彈將會持續一段時間，不過長遠來看，仍需要繼續觀察內房問題和經濟狀況的變化。

亞洲-中性 中國引領亞洲經濟復甦 區域經濟分化 受惠於中國市場的反彈，整體亞洲市場也隨之上升。然而，亞洲各國的表現並不一致。越南受制於海外需求疲軟，出口和製造業活動的復甦也未如理想，導致首季的GDP增長放緩至5.66%。而印度股市近期出現回吐，加上印度正在進行大選，投資者暫時維持觀望態度。
－ 完 －
English Version:
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https://www.gumhk.com/zh-HK/newsroom/gum-may-2024-outlook
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GUM: May 2024 Outlook

GUM: 2024年5月投資展望

April 2024 Outlook: United States-Neutral | Europe-Neutral | Japan-Slightly Positive | China-Neutral | Asia-Neutral
Switzerland cut interest rates earlier than the United States. Japan ended its negative interest rate policy, and China and Hong Kong have seen slight signs of recovery. As a result, the Asian market continues to be observed cautiously.
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🇺🇸 United States-Neutral Communication Services and Energy Outperform Technology Sector; Strong Economic Performance Further Delays Interest Rate Cuts US stock market tech sector rally eases, while communication equipment and energy sectors perform well, benefiting overall market trends. On the other hand, factors such as declining US unemployment rate and strong ISM manufacturing index help alleviate market concerns about recession risks. However, the continuous three-month increase in US core CPI in March exceeding expectations and a 2.5% growth in the annual Personal Consumption Index may lead to the Federal Reserve further delaying interest rate cuts or even raise concerns of potential rate hikes.
🇪🇺 Europe-Neutral Eurozone Inflation Stabilizes; Switzerland Takes the Lead in Cutting Interest Rates UK GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q4 2023, entering ‘Technical Recession’. While Eurozone inflation eases, allowing room for interest rate cuts. Swiss National Bank surprised the market with an interest rate cut to 1.5% in March. Meanwhile, the Russian president Putin’s successful re-election fuels the expectations of the continued Russia-Ukraine conflict, and geopolitical tensions intensify with the Israel-Palestine Conflict, raising concerns of disruptions in commodity supply and supply chains in the market.
🇯🇵 Japan-Slightly Positive Japan Ended Negative Interest Rate Policy, Japanese Yen Reacted with a Soft Bias Japan’s largest company, Toyota, agreed to 5.28% pay raise in 2024, which is the highest in 33 years, reflecting the confidence in the Japanese economy. The Bank of Japan ended eight years of negative interest rate policy, raising the benchmark rate from -0.1% to 0%-0.1%, and abolishing Yield Curve control (YCC) Policy, while continuing to purchase Japanese government bonds. Market expectations of gradual monetary policy adjustments by BOJ, without rapid rate hikes, keep the Japanese Yen’s trend soft, maintaining a level of around 152 Yen per US dollar.
🇨🇳 China-Neutral The Macroeconomic Condition Has Slightly Improved, But Market Sentiment Remains Subdued The annual Two Sessions, a major political event in China, has concluded in 2024. The GDP growth target for the year has been set at 5%, and the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds worth 1 trillion Yuan will begin this year and continue for several years. Domestic market demand is gradually recovering, with industrial profits increasing by 10.2% year-on-year. Additionally, Hong Kong’s March S&amp;P PMI has rebounded to 50.9, surpassing the 50 threshold and indicating an expansion for the first time this year. However, Fitch Ratings has downgraded China’s outlook to negative, and the internal housing crisis continues to cast a shadow over the entire Chinese market, warranting continued observation.
Asia-Neutral Asian Emerging Economies are Expected to Continue to Expand, and Attention should be Paid to The Upcoming Indian Election According to the report from the Boao Forum for Asia, it predicts that the Asian economy will grow by 4.5%, and expects strong economic growth and regional economic integration in Asia to continue through 2024. The upcoming parliamentary election in India, where market expectations lean towards the re-election of Prime Minister Modi, may still introduce some uncertainty to Asian markets. 
－ The End －
中文版：
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2024年4月投資展望：美國-中性｜歐洲-中性｜日本-偏向正面｜中國-中性｜亞洲-中性 瑞士比美國更早減息，日本結束負利率政策，中國和香港稍微回暖，繼續觀望亞洲市場。
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🇺🇸 美國-中性 能源和通訊設備超越科技板塊；強勁經濟表現進一步延遲減息 美國股市科技版塊升勢緩和，而通訊設備和能源版塊表現優異，升勢擴散至其他板塊利好股市走勢。另一方面，美國失業率下降及ISM 製造業指數表現強勁等因素也有助減輕市場對衰退風險的擔憂。惟美國3月核心CPI 連續三個月升幅超過預期，年度個人消費指數也增長了2.5%，或會令聯儲局再次推遲減息時間，甚至有進一步加息的隱憂。

🇪🇺 歐洲-中性 歐元通脹回穩；瑞士率先減息 雖然英國2023年第四季GDP下降了0.3%，連續兩個季度的負增長出現「技術性衰退」，但歐元區整體通脹壓力減輕，因而增加可減息的空間。瑞士央行在三月下調利率至1.5%，超出市場預期。另一方面，俄羅斯總統普京成功連任，相信俄烏戰爭將會持續，加上以哈戰爭令地緣衝突加劇，將加強市場對商品供應量及供應鏈中斷的憂慮。

🇯🇵 日本-偏向正面 日本結束負利率政策 日圓反偏軟 日本最大的企業豐田汽車同意在2024年加薪5.28%，加薪幅度為當地33年來最大，反映公司看好日本經濟。日本央行結束長達八年的負利率政策，將基準利率由-0.1%上調至0%-0.1%，同時取消孳息曲線控制（YCC）政策，但仍然會繼續購買日本國債。由於市場預期日本央行將循序漸進，不會急速加息，令日圓走勢偏軟，維持兌每美元152的水平。

🇨🇳 中國-中性 宏觀經濟稍微回暖 但市場情緒仍然低迷 2024年度的兩會結束。 本年度的國內生產總值（ GDP ）的增速目標將定於5%， 並從今年開始連續數年發行1萬億元的超長期特別國債。 內地市場的需求也慢慢恢復，工業利潤按年漲10.2%，同時，香港3月標普PMI回升至50.9，高於50榮枯線，是今年首次重回擴張水平。但是，惠譽降中國評級展望至負面及內房危機仍然為整個中國市場帶來陰霾，需要持續觀望。

亞洲-中性 亞洲發展中經濟體將繼續擴張；留意印度大選 博鰲亞洲論壇的報告預測亞洲經濟將增長4.5％，並預計到2024年，亞洲的經濟增長和地區經濟一體化進程將保持強勁。印度即將舉行的國會大選，儘管市場預期印度總理莫迪將連任，但仍可能給亞洲市場帶來不穩定性。
－ 完 －
English Version: <a href="https://www.gumhk.com/zh-HK/newsroom/gum-april-2024-outlook-2/">https://www.gumhk.com/zh-HK/newsroom/gum-april-2024-outlook-2</a>
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GUM: April 2024 Outlook

GUM: 2024年4月投資展望

March 2024 Outlook: United States-Neutral｜Europe-Neutral｜Japan-Slightly Positive｜China-Neutral｜Asia-Neutral
It is expected that the US will start reducing interest rates in the second half of the year, the Nikkei Index has surpassed 40,000 points, and the Chinese stock market has rebounded. However, long-term pessimism towards the Chinese market still needs to be remedied.
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🇺🇸 United States-Neutral 🏢 US Inflation Exceeds Expectations; Job Market Remains Strong The United States has announced that the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is considered an inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve, rose by 0.4% for the core PCE index excluding food and energy. Over the past year, there has been an accumulated increase of 2.8%. The released PCE inflation data indicates that the Federal Reserve still has more work to do in cooling down price pressures. The market expects the Federal Reserve to begin reducing interest rates in the second half of this year, with two to three rate cuts expected within the year. While the US stock market is still performing well, the upward momentum of technology stocks is starting to slow down, leading to expectations of increased volatility in the US stock market.
🇪🇺 Europe-Neutral 💶 Eurozone Inflation Continues to Fall; France Lowers 2024 Economic Growth Expectations The inflation rate in the Eurozone, consisting of 20 countries, has declined in 2023. European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that this trend will continue into 2024. The European Central Bank expects the current disinflationary process to persist, aiming to achieve the 2% target and to see more evidence of price growth returning to the target. Wage expectations may become an important factor driving price trends in the coming quarters, leading to a cautious stance in the European market for now. Additionally, France has revised downward its economic growth expectations for 2024.
🇯🇵 Japan-Slightly Positive 💹 Nikkei Index Surpasses 40,000 Points, Potential to Escape Deflation The Nikkei Average Index has shown strong upward momentum, breaking through 40,000 points on March 4th and reaching a new all-time high. Additionally, Japan’s core inflation rate has exceeded expectations, reaching or surpassing the central bank’s target level for the 22nd consecutive month. It is also expected that Japan’s labor market will continue to experience stable growth. With rising wages and sustained achievement of 2% inflation, there is a possibility that the Japanese government will end its negative interest rate policy in the second half of the year, although overall wage data still needs to be observed. Due to increased market expectations for the removal of negative interest rates, the Japanese yen has strengthened against the US dollar, putting pressure on the Nikkei Index. However, the long-term outlook for Japan’s economic growth remains optimistic.
🇨🇳 China-Neutral 🤔 Chinese Stock Market Records Highest Net Inflow; Anticipating Favorable Market Policies from “Two Sessions” According to a report by the International Institute of Finance, the Chinese stock market attracted a net inflow of USD$9.6 billion from foreign investors in February, reaching its highest level in over a year. At the same time, the net purchases of China A-shares through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect reached a new high of 60.744 billion Chinese yuan, marking the highest record in the previous 13 months. The market generally believes that the current undervaluation of China A-shares is one of the main reasons attracting foreign capital inflows. Additionally, anticipation of new policies driving the economy following the “Two Sessions” has led to a rebound in the performance of the Chinese and Hong Kong markets in February. However, the confirmation of China’s economic recovery still depends on economic data.

Asia-Neutral ☄️ Asian Markets Benefit from Rebound in Chinese and Hong Kong Markets, But Long-term Outlook Depends on China’s Economic Data The MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) Index has shown impressive performance since February, rising by 4.71%. It has outperformed the record-high S&amp;P 500 Index and Nasdaq Index. Among them, the MSCI China Index and the Korea Index have led the gains, rising by nearly 5.9% and 7.8% respectively in February. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the Indian economy will grow by 6.5% in 2024 and 2025. Despite the recent positive performance in Asia, the long-term outlook still depends on the recovery of the Chinese economy.
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2024年3月投資展望：美國-中性｜歐洲-中性｜日本-偏向正面｜中國-中性｜亞洲-中性 預計美國下半年才開始減息，日經指數突破4萬點，中國股市反彈，唯長遠悲觀情緒仍需消除。
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🇺🇸 美國-中性 🏢 美國通脹超預期；就業市場保持強勁 美國公布聯儲局視為通脹指標的1月PCE（個人消費開支）指數，不計食物及能源的1月核心PCE指數升0.4%，過去1年累計升幅2.8%。公布的PCE通脹數據顯示美國聯儲局還有更多工作要做來冷卻物價壓力。 市場預期聯儲局會在今年下半年才開始減息，並於今年度減息兩至三次。雖然美國股市仍然向好，但科技股升勢開始放緩，預期美股將更為波動。
🇪🇺 歐洲-中性 💶 歐元區通脹繼續回落；法國下調2024經濟增長預期 歐元區20國的通貨膨脹率在2023年有所下降。歐洲央行行長拉加德表示，這一趨勢將在2024年繼續下去。歐洲央行預計目前反通脹進程將會持續下去，希望達致2%的目標，以及看見更多證據表明物價增長正回歸目標。預期工資在未來幾個季度可能會成為推動價格走勢的重要因素，暫時對歐洲市場持觀望態度。
🇯🇵 日本-偏向正面 💹 日經指數突破4萬點 有機會走出通縮 日經平均指數升勢強勁，於3月4日突破了4萬點的重要關口，創下了歷史新高。此外，日本的基準通脹率超出了預期，連續第22個月達到或超過央行的目標水平，並且預計日本的勞動力市場將保持穩定增長。伴隨著薪資揚升、持續且穩定的達成2%通膨，日本政府下半年有機會將結束負利率政策，但需要仍需觀望整體工資數據。由於市場對解除負利率的預期調高，日圓相對於美元匯率走強，但日經指數受壓，但長遠仍然看好日本經濟增長。
🇨🇳 中國-中性 🤔 中國股市淨流入創新高；憧憬「兩會」將有利市政策 根據國際金融協會（International Institute of Finance）的報告，中國股市在2月份吸引了96億美元的外資淨流入，達到超過一年來的最高水平。同時，透過滬深股通流入中國A股的淨買入額達到607.44億元人民幣，成為13個月以來的新高。市場普遍認為，中國A股目前的低估值是吸引外資流入的主要原因之一，加上「兩會」後有新的政策推動經濟，令中港市場2月表現反彈。但仍侍經濟數據來確定中國經濟是否復甦。

亞洲-中性 ☄️ 亞洲市場受惠於中港市場反彈 唯需要觀望長遠中國經濟數據 MSCI亞洲(日本除外)指數在2月至今表現十分亮麗，上升4.71%，表現優於創新高的標普500指數及納斯達克指數，當中MSCI中國指數及韓國指數更分別領漲，2月分別上升近5.9%及7.8%。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預計，印度經濟在2024和2025年將增長6.5%。儘然最近亞洲表現不錯，長遠仍要看中國經濟復甦情況。
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GUM: March 2024 Outlook

GUM: 2024年3月投資展望

2026年4月投資展望：美國-中性｜歐洲-中性｜日本-偏弱｜中國及香港-中性｜亞洲-偏弱 環球市場踏入四月，整體氣氛偏向審慎，走勢亦呈現分化。人工智能及科技需求持續強勁，加上部分地區經濟基本面仍具韌性，為市場提供一定支撐；然而，地緣政治緊張升溫、油價及能源價格再度上行，以及主要經濟體政策空間逐步收緊，正逐漸削弱這些利好因素。美國與歐洲市場整體維持中性看法，企業盈利及經濟活動的穩定性提供支撐，但地緣政治與政策不確定性限制了進一步上行空間；中國市場同樣維持中性，受惠於科技動能改善、通縮壓力紓緩及基本面回穩，但外圍風險仍不容忽視；至於日本及亞洲整體則略偏負面，主要由於對進口石油及能源依賴較高，使其更易受到近期中東局勢升溫所帶來的通脹及增長壓力影響。

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🇺🇸 美國 - 中性 人工智能韌性持續支撐市場，但地緣政治風險與聯儲局偏鷹立場令美股前景維持中性。


美國股市於四月進入風險與回報相對均衡的階段，我們對美國市場的整體看法維持中性。市場持續受惠於企業盈利表現穩健，以及科技板塊仍然佔據主導地位；然而，地緣政治不確定性升溫，以及政策環境轉趨審慎，正逐步抵銷有關支持。近期市場評論亦反映出這種拉鋸格局：部分策略師因企業盈利具韌性而對美股看法轉趨建設性，但亦有機構因地緣衝突風險上升，以及油價帶動通脹壓力回升而下調指數目標。

當中最主要的利好因素仍然是人工智能及科技增長持續，我們認為這對美國整體市場屬正面因素。最新消息顯示，人工智能投資周期仍處於擴張階段，而非放緩。Meta近日與CoreWeave進一步深化合作，簽訂一項總值210億美元、延續至2032年的AI雲端合作協議，再次反映市場對運算能力及基礎設施的投資力度仍然強勁。與此同時，Amazon披露其AWS旗下AI服務的年化收入運行率已超過150億美元，反映AI需求正逐步轉化為具體商業收入。再者，科技板塊盈利預期持續強勁，繼續為整體市場情緒提供重要支撐，亦有助投資者維持對大型科技股長線增長前景的信心。

另一方面，地緣政治緊張局勢仍是明顯的負面因素。自美伊談判破裂後，市場重新消化霍爾木茲海峽受擾的風險，油價一度回升至每桶100美元以上。這對股市而言尤其重要，因為能源價格上升不僅會擠壓消費者購買力，亦會推高企業投入成本，並再度觸發市場對通脹的關注。儘管美股一度展現一定韌性，但這層地緣政治陰霾已成為估值進一步擴張的重要制約。 利率政策風險方面，聯儲局3月17日至18日會議紀錄顯示，在通脹持續偏高的背景下，決策者對重新考慮加息的開放程度有所提高，尤其是在能源價格及通脹預期再度升溫之下。雖然聯儲局目前維持利率不變，但整體措辭明顯偏向審慎，足以提醒市場短期內政策放鬆並非必然。整體而言，AI帶動的增長仍為美國市場提供重要緩衝，但地緣政治風險與聯儲局偏鷹立場，令我們對四月份美國市場維持中性看法。

🇪🇺 歐洲 - 中性 歐洲內部韌性尚存，但地緣政治與能源相關不確定性抵銷利好，區內前景維持中性。

歐洲股市於四月同樣呈現相對平衡的格局，我們對歐元區市場的整體看法維持中性。區內市場受惠於若干仍具韌性的經濟基本面，以及具選擇性的政策支持；然而，這些利好因素正受到地緣政治風險再起，以及能源價格推升通脹預期所制衡。近期歐洲市場走勢亦清楚反映這種張力：隨著中東局勢推動油價升穿每桶100美元，STOXX 600表現轉弱，投資者重新評估區內增長、通脹及利率前景。

短期內最明顯的壓力來自地緣政治緊張局勢。美伊談判破裂、霍爾木茲海峽潛在受阻，以及市場重新關注歐洲對能源的脆弱性，均對投資情緒造成打擊。對歐洲而言，這項風險尤為敏感，因為較高的油價及投入成本會更快傳導至工業利潤、運輸成本及通脹預期。路透亦指出，最新一輪能源衝擊不僅令供應鏈憂慮重燃，亦加劇區內商業活動的不確定性；與此同時，歐洲債息上升，反映市場正為更具挑戰性的政策環境作出準備。

與此同時，經濟基本面仍屬正面，關鍵在於近期通脹回升主要由油價及能源價格上升所帶動，而核心通脹仍相對受控，顯示歐元區內部價格壓力大致保持穩定。換言之，整體通脹回升未必意味基本面出現廣泛惡化。另一方面，歐元區最新綜合PMI由51.9回落至50.7，雖反映經濟活動有所放緩，但仍高於50這一榮枯分界線。整體而言，雖然油價衝擊推高表面通脹，但較溫和的核心通脹與仍處擴張區間的PMI，顯示歐元區經濟仍具一定韌性，而非明顯陷入下行。

至於政策支持方面，德國已公布臨時燃油稅寬減、免稅員工補貼等措施，以緩衝能源衝擊，對市場氣氛帶來一定邊際支持；但另一方面，歐洲央行仍維持審慎立場，官員表示未來行動仍需視乎高油價及化工價格上升，是否引發更廣泛的第二輪通脹效應。市場預期亦已由減息逐步轉向更長時間維持高利率，甚至不排除更緊縮的政策路徑。換言之，政策現階段更像是穩定器，而非推動市場進一步上行的催化劑，因此我們對四月份歐元區市場維持中性看法。 🇯🇵 日本 - 偏弱&nbsp; 本土支持因素仍在，但高度依賴進口能源削弱整體表現，日本市場前景略偏負面。

日本股市於四月的展望為略偏負面。雖然日本內需活動與政策延續性表面上仍具支持，但相較其他主要市場，日本因高度依賴進口石油及液化天然氣，對今輪能源衝擊的敏感度明顯更高。這使日本市場特別容易受到中東局勢升溫、霍爾木茲海峽運輸風險，以及燃料成本上升的影響。報道指出，日本約95%的石油供應依賴中東，官方亦正考慮進一步釋放戰略儲備，以應對持續的供應風險。

當中最主要的拖累來自地緣政治緊張局勢。中東衝突升級提高了油價進一步上升及液化天然氣供應收緊的風險，直接威脅日本的能源安全及工業成本基礎。報道亦指出，若中東LNG供應持續受阻，日本今夏或面臨電力供應緊張，而整體能源衝擊亦已促使政府動用儲備並考慮更多緊急應對措施。對日本而言，這並非單純的新聞風險，而是會透過進口通脹、公用事業壓力、企業利潤及家庭消費能力，直接傳導至經濟與市場，因此我們認為這是日本市場展望略偏負面的核心原因。

與此同時，政策格局及政策延續性仍屬正面。高市早苗首相於年初取得強勢選舉授權後，令政策可預見性有所提升，而政府與高層官員近期亦再次重申日本銀行獨立性的重要性，有助在波動市況中穩定市場信心。另有報道指出，日本高級經濟委員會內的民間成員正推動建立多年期預算框架，以確保半導體、造船等戰略投資領域擁有持續資金支持，進一步反映日本整體政策方向的延續性。這固然無法消除能源問題，但有助降低內部政策不穩定所帶來的額外風險。

經濟基本面仍屬正面，儘管其強度已不如能源衝擊前般突出。日本3月綜合PMI由2月的53.9微降至53.0，顯示私人部門活動略為放慢，但仍維持穩健擴張，服務業亦持續處於增長區間。同時，日本銀行行長植田和男表示，實質利率仍明顯處於負值，對民間資本開支具支持作用。換言之，日本本土經濟仍在擴張，政策環境亦大致維持有利增長。然而，由於這些利好正被其對進口能源的高度依賴所抵銷，我們對四月份日本市場的看法維持略偏負面。

🇨🇳 中國香港 - 中性 科技復甦、通縮壓力紓緩及宏觀數據回穩帶來支持，但地緣政治與外需風險令中國市場維持中性。

中國及香港股市於四月維持中性看法。市場目前受惠於科技動能改善、通縮壓力紓緩，以及宏觀數據仍有一定支撐；但這些正面因素同時受到地緣政治風險及外需不確定性所牽制。最新預測顯示，中國第一季經濟增速有望由去年第四季的4.5%回升至4.8%，反映經濟短線有所改善，但2026年餘下時間的前景，仍受到中東局勢升溫及能源衝擊所干擾。

其中最主要的壓力來自地緣政治緊張局勢。中東衝突惡化推升能源及運輸成本，而對中國而言，這點尤其重要，因為中國同時是大型能源進口國及製造業出口國。最新數據顯示，中國3月出口按年增長由1至2月的21.8%大幅放緩至2.5%，貿易順差亦遠低於市場預期，反映伊朗戰事拖累全球需求，同時推高運費與投入成本。 不過，人工智能與科技增長持續仍屬正面因素。中國早前出口表現較佳，部分便受惠於人工智能帶動的電子產品需求，而市場普遍仍預期，半導體及綠色科技需求在未來數季可繼續支持出口表現，即使能源衝擊有所升溫。供應端方面，長江存儲近期計劃在接近完工的新廠房之外，再新增兩座工廠，潛在產能增幅可超過一倍，反映在貿易限制持續的背景下，中國本土半導體產業鏈仍在加速投資與擴張。整體而言，科技仍是中國市場最清晰的增長支柱之一。

另一項支持來自通縮憂慮紓緩。數據顯示，中國3月消費者物價指數按年上升1.3%，為37個月以來最快，生產者物價跌幅亦有所收窄。更重要的是，扣除食品及能源後的核心CPI由1月的0.8%升至1.8%，顯示內生價格動能較市場原先預期為佳。雖然部分通脹回升受農曆新年及近期油價影響，但整體而言，市場對中國陷入持續通縮的憂慮已較早前有所緩和。

最後，基本面仍屬正面。3月中公布的活動數據顯示，中國1至2月工業增加值按年增長6.3%，高於市場預期；同時，最新預測亦指向首季經濟增長回升，並預期2026年全年消費者通脹約為1.0%，較2025年接近持平的水平有所改善。3月新增人民幣貸款亦回升至2.99萬億元，儘管仍略低於市場估計，但已反映經濟正在企穩，而非進一步明顯放緩。綜合來看，中國市場確有科技、價格與宏觀穩定三方面支撐，但地緣政治風險仍足以令我們對四月份中國及香港市場維持中性而非更積極的判斷。

亞洲 - 偏弱 韓國與台灣等AI主導市場帶來支撐，但區內整體對油價敏感且表現分化，亞洲前景略偏負面。

亞洲股市於四月的整體展望為略偏負面。核心原因在於區內多數經濟體高度依賴進口石油與能源，使亞洲市場對今輪中東衝擊特別敏感。亞洲開發銀行警告，若衝突持續至第三季，亞洲地區2026年增長或由去年的5.4%放緩至4.7%，通脹則可能由2025年的3.0%升至5.6%。這種廣泛脆弱性令我們對亞洲整體維持審慎，即使區內不同市場之間的表現已出現明顯分化。

最主要的拖累來自地緣政治緊張局勢。油價上升及能源供應受擾的風險，正直接滲透至亞洲宏觀前景，因為區內多個主要經濟體皆屬大型能源進口國。南韓已警告伊朗戰事可能令油價持續高企，並干擾原材料供應鏈；印度央行亦表示，中東危機已明顯改變這個石油進口依賴度約達九成經濟體的展望。另有報道指出，包括印度及中國在內的亞洲主要液化石油氣進口國，近期已增加自美國進口，以填補中東供應缺口，反映能源衝擊正迅速轉化為區內成本壓力。

相對之下，人工智能與科技板塊仍屬正面因素。台灣與南韓繼續受惠於半導體及AI相關需求強勁。市場預期台積電將錄得連續第四個季度盈利創新高，第一季淨利潤增幅約達五成；同時，台灣央行亦因科技出口強勁而上調2026年經濟增長預測至7.28%。南韓方面，半導體板塊同樣受資金追捧，市場普遍認為南韓與台灣是今年全球表現最強的市場之一，反映AI主題仍是區內重要支撐。

此外，通脹曾於亞洲部分地區維持相對溫和，因此我們將其視為正面因素，但這項緩衝正受到近期油價上升的挑戰。南韓3月通脹率為2.2%，低於市場預期，顯示燃油價格管制措施仍有效減輕傳導壓力；台灣央行則仍預期2026年通脹僅為1.8%，低於其2%的警戒水平。與此同時，區內表現正出現更明顯的分化，其中南韓與台灣相對較佳，受惠於AI及出口帶動；反之，東南亞部分國家表現較弱，因為較高油價對其經濟的直接衝擊更為明顯。新加坡因戰事引發的通脹風險而收緊政策，菲律賓3月通脹則升至4.1%，並促使當局推出燃油稅寬減措施。整體而言，亞洲市場仍有科技與先前較溫和通脹所帶來的支撐，但由於區內表現分化且能源依賴度高，我們對四月份亞洲市場維持略偏負面看法。

－ 結束－

April 2026 Outlook: United States – Neutral | Europe – Neutral | Japan – Slightly Negative | China & Hong Kong – Neutral | Asia ex‑Japan – Slightly Negative

Global markets enter April with a cautious and uneven tone, as the ongoing strength in AI, technology demand and selected domestic fundamentals continues to provide support, but this is increasingly being offset by heightened geopolitical tension, renewed oil and energy price pressure, and a more constrained policy environment across major economies. The United States and Europe remain broadly balanced with neutral views, supported by resilience in earnings and economic activity but capped by geopolitical and policy headwinds; China also stays neutral as improving technology momentum, easing deflation concerns and firmer fundamentals are offset by external risks; meanwhile, Japan and broader Asia tilt slightly negative due to their heavier dependence on imported oil and energy, which leaves them more exposed to the inflationary and growth risks arising from the latest Middle East developments.

2026年4月投資展望：美國-中性｜歐洲-中性｜日本-偏弱｜中國及香港-中性｜亞洲-偏弱

環球市場踏入四月，整體氣氛偏向審慎，走勢亦呈現分化。人工智能及科技需求持續強勁，加上部分地區經濟基本面仍具韌性，為市場提供一定支撐；然而，地緣政治緊張升溫、油價及能源價格再度上行，以及主要經濟體政策空間逐步收緊，正逐漸削弱這些利好因素。美國與歐洲市場整體維持中性看法，企業盈利及經濟活動的穩定性提供支撐，但地緣政治與政策不確定性限制了進一步上行空間；中國市場同樣維持中性，受惠於科技動能改善、通縮壓力紓緩及基本面回穩，但外圍風險仍不容忽視；至於日本及亞洲整體則略偏負面，主要由於對進口石油及能源依賴較高，使其更易受到近期中東局勢升溫所帶來的通脹及增長壓力影響。

GUM: April 2026 Outlook

GUM: 2026年4月投資展望

February 2024 Outlook: 🇺🇸 United States-Neutral｜🇪🇺 Europe-Neutral｜🇯🇵 Japan-Slightly Positive｜🇨🇳 China-Slightly Negative｜Asia-Neutral 
 US inflation data exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in March, and high interest rates are expected to persist until mid-year. The Japanese stock market is receiving positive attention, but both the Chinese and Hong Kong markets are still struggling with a downward trend.
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🇺🇸 United States-Neutral 🎈 Interest Rate Expectations to Remain Until Summer; Stocks Face High Volatility In Earnings Season US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January exceeded market expectations. The Federal Reserve may need to exercise patience and wait for inflation data to further moderate before considering rate cuts, but it is widely believed that inflation is gradually moving towards the 2% target, with potential rate cuts expected to occur after May. In terms of the stock market, this year’s gains in the US market have been primarily driven by the technology and communication services sectors. With the recent earnings season in the US, increased market volatility is expected, and investors need to be particularly vigilant.
🇪🇺 Europe-Neutral 💰 European Inflation Remains High; UK Wage Growth Slows Down ECB’s Lagarde has stated that the eurozone has not experienced a severe economic recession and that the most significant inflation pressures have subsided. While it is currently uncertain when interest rates will be lowered, authorities will begin implementing rate cuts if there is evidence that inflation is gradually returning to the 2% target. On the other hand, the latest wage data released by the UK’s Office for National Statistics shows a slowdown in wage growth for local workers in the three months leading up to November 2023. This suggests that there will be no immediate changes to European interest rate policies.
🇯🇵 Japan-Slightly Positive 💹 Nikkei Index Rose 9% in January; Series of Measures Attract Investors The Nikkei Stock Average has shown a strong upward momentum this year, with a January increase of 8.4%, surpassing 36,000 points and reaching a new high in nearly 34 years. The Bank of Japan has announced its interest rate decision, in line with market expectations, maintaining the key benchmark rate at -0.1%. The Bank of Japan stated that the economy is gradually moving towards the expected level, with core inflation expected to be around 1.9%, very close to the 2% target. Additionally, the Japanese stock market has recently implemented a series of measures to enhance its appeal to individual and foreign investors, including increasing tax-free investment quotas and eliminating dividend and capital gains taxes. These measures are expected to contribute to the development of the Japanese stock market.
🇨🇳 China-Slightly Negative 📉 Mainland Continues to Face Deflationary Challenges; Hong Kong PMI Contracts Again Mainland China’s economy is still struggling with deflationary pressures, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December recorded a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, marking three consecutive months of negative growth. This indicates that the economy is still in deflationary territory, as reported by S&amp;P Global. Additionally, Hong Kong’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January came in at 49.9, slightly lower than December’s 51.3, and ended two consecutive months of being above the 50-point threshold, indicating a slight downturn in the business environment as Hong Kong enters 2024. It is believed that both the mainland China and Hong Kong markets will require some time to recover.
🌏 Asia-Neutral 💥 Weak Chinese Economy Impacts Asian Markets; Asia Benefits from the AI Boom The AI boom has driven the export of electronic components in Asian regions such as South Korea and Taiwan. The US State Department has stated that 15 American semiconductor companies are seeking to invest $8 billion in Vietnam. Countries in Southeast Asia, including India and Thailand, have also introduced new industrial policies and actively sought investment from semiconductor giants. However, the overall performance of the Asian market is affected by the continued weakness of the Chinese economy.
－ The End －
中文版本:
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2024年2月投資展望：🇺🇸 美國-中性｜🇪🇺 歐洲-中性｜🇯🇵 日本-偏向正面｜🇨🇳 中國-偏向負面｜亞洲-中性 美國通脹數據超預期，3月減息機會率下降，高利率將維持至年中。日本股市被受追捧，唯中港仍未擺脫下行趨勢。
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🇺🇸 美國-中性 🎈 利率預期維持到夏季； 業績期股票波幅大 美國一月份生產者價格指數（PPI）及消費物價指數（CPI）超出市場預期。聯邦儲備局為壓抑通脹，可能需要保持耐心，侍通脹數據進一步回落後才開始減息，但市場普遍認為通脹仍在逐漸趨於2％目標的路徑上，預計5月後才開始減息。股市方面，今年美股升幅主要受科技及通訊服務板塊所帶動，適逢最近美股業績期，預期美股波動將會擴大，投資者需要特別留意。
🇪🇺 歐洲-中性 💰 歐洲通脹高企；英國工資增長放緩 歐洲央行行長拉加德指出，歐元區尚未出現嚴重的經濟衰退，而且最嚴重的通脹壓力已經過去。雖然目前無法確定何時降息，但若有證據顯示通脹將逐步回落至2%的目標，當局就會開始實施降息措施。另一方面，英國國家統計局公布最新工資數據，顯示當地勞工的2023年11月起3個月內的薪金增長呈現放緩，預期歐洲利率政策暫時不會改變。
🇯🇵 日本-偏向正面 💹 ⽇經指數1⽉份曾上升9%； 一系列措施吸引投資者 日本股市今年呈現強勁的上升趨勢，1月份漲幅達到8.4%，突破36,000點，創下了近34年來的新高。日本央行公布的利率決定符合市場預期，將主要基準利率維持在負0.1%的水平。日本央行表示，經濟正在逐漸趨向預期水平，核心通脹預期約為1.9%，非常接近2%的目標。此外，日本股市最近推出了一系列措施，旨在提高對個人投資者和外國投資者的吸引力，包括增加免稅投資額度、取消股息稅和資本利得稅等。這些措施有助於促進日本股市的發展。
🇨🇳 中國-偏向負面 📉 內地未擺脫通縮困擾；香港PMI 再度萎縮 內地經濟仍未擺脫通縮困境，去年12月的居民消費價格指數（CPI）同比下降了0.3%，連續3個月呈現負增長，仍然處於通縮範圍，標普全球公布。另外，香港1月採購經理指數（PMI）報49.9，較去年12月的51.3有所回落，並結束連續兩個月高於50盛衰分界線，反映香港經濟踏入2024年，營商環境略為轉差。相信中港市場仍需一段時間才可恢復。
🌏 亞洲-中性 💥 中國經濟疲弱影響亞洲市場；亞洲受惠於人工智能熱潮 在人工智能熱潮的帶動下，帶動亞洲地區(如：韓國及台灣)電子零件出口。美國國務院表示，有15家美國半導體公司正尋求於越南投資80億美元。印度及泰國等東南亞各國也推出新的產業政策並積極爭取半導體大廠前來投資。但由於中國經濟仍然疲弱，影響亞洲市場整體表現。
－ 完 －
English version:
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GUM: February 2024 Outlook

GUM: 2024年2月投資展望

March 2026 Outlook: United States &ndash; Neutral | Europe &ndash; Neutral | Japan &ndash; Slightly Negative | China &amp; Hong Kong &ndash; Neutral | Asia ex‑Japan &ndash; Slightly Negative
Global markets remain pressured by escalating U.S.&ndash;Israel&ndash;Iran tensions, with rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty weighing on risk appetite. In the U.S., short‑term sentiment is challenged by external risks and shifting policy expectations, though AI continues to anchor a solid long‑term growth outlook. Europe benefits from improving fundamentals and policy stability, but its reliance on imported energy limits near‑term upside. Japan&rsquo;s heavy dependence on Middle Eastern crude heightens its exposure to energy shocks, resulting in softer momentum. In China and Hong Kong, AI themes provide selective support, yet domestic demand and policy execution remain key swing factors amid external energy volatility. Asia ex‑Japan faces similar pressures, with elevated oil prices overshadowing the resilience of South Korea and Taiwan&rsquo;s semiconductor cycle. Overall, global markets are likely to remain range‑bound until geopolitical tensions ease and energy prices stabilize.
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🇺🇸 United States &ndash; Neutral Geopolitical and policy risks weigh on short‑term sentiment, while AI remains the core long‑term growth engine
The U.S. equity market remains rated Neutral, as rising short‑term external risks contrast with steady medium‑ to long‑term structural growth drivers. Fundamentally, the AI and broader technology ecosystem continues to exhibit resilience. Recent earnings reports and guidance from major technology companies underscore robust momentum across AI compute demand, cloud revenue acceleration, semiconductor and server infrastructure investment, and sustained increases in AI‑related capital expenditure. Collectively, these trends reinforce AI&rsquo;s role as a key structural engine behind U.S. economic and earnings growth, with no signs of meaningful deterioration in the underlying trajectory.
Short‑term, however, several headwinds warrant attention. Heightened Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, boosting safe‑haven demand and posing upside risks to inflation. Elevated energy costs may pressure corporate margins and consumer spending. Meanwhile, renewed uncertainty around U.S. trade and tariff policy introduces additional risks for corporate cost structures, supply‑chain planning, and investment sentiment.
On the policy side, higher energy prices have pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The weakening of rate‑cut expectations leaves the market without substantive near‑term policy catalysts, encouraging investors to adopt a more cautious stance. While long‑term fundamentals remain intact, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and shifting policy expectations suggests that U.S. equities are more likely to experience consolidation rather than a near‑term breakout.
Looking ahead, a de‑escalation in geopolitical tensions, clearer policy signals, and easing inflationary pressures may help risk appetite recover. In such a scenario, AI and technology sectors&mdash;with their strong structural demand&mdash;are well‑positioned to resume leadership in driving U.S. market performance.

🇪🇺 Europe &ndash; Neutral Improving economic conditions offer fundamental support, while energy and geopolitical risks continue to constrain upside
The European equity market also remains rated Neutral. The Eurozone&rsquo;s economic backdrop has stabilized meaningfully, supported by retreating inflation, improving consumer sentiment, and well‑anchored medium‑term inflation expectations. Recent data&mdash;including manufacturing, services, and business sentiment indicators&mdash;point to incremental improvement across the region. Germany, the bloc&rsquo;s largest economy, has shown early signs of recovery, which is encouraging for broader regional momentum. Policy conditions remain supportive. With inflation moderating and growth stabilizing, the European Central Bank has maintained a steady, cautious stance that helps preserve accommodative financing conditions for corporates. Meanwhile, several European governments continue to pursue regulatory simplification, industrial transformation, and investment‑friendly policy initiatives, underscoring a commitment to competitiveness and stable economic development. Nonetheless, significant external risks persist. The sharp rise in geopolitical tensions has pushed oil and natural gas prices higher, posing a direct challenge to Europe&rsquo;s energy‑dependent economies. Elevated input costs threaten corporate profitability, particularly in industrial and manufacturing sectors, and may impede the region&rsquo;s fragile recovery. Differences among EU member states regarding Middle East policy responses have added to uncertainty, complicating coordination and limiting the market&rsquo;s ability to price in a clear policy outlook. Overall, while Europe&rsquo;s medium‑term fundamentals remain stable and policy support provides a degree of downside protection, persistent geopolitical and energy‑related risks are likely to cap short‑term upside. Until these risks subside, European equities are expected to remain range‑bound.

🇯🇵 Japan &ndash; Slightly Negative Rising geopolitical and energy risks suppress market momentum
Japan continues to face elevated external risk due to the potential escalation of the U.S./Israel&ndash;Iran conflict. With approximately 90% of Japan&rsquo;s crude oil imports sourced from the Middle East, the Japanese economy is highly sensitive to energy price volatility. A sustained increase in oil prices would push up corporate costs, compress profit margins, and heighten the difficulty of policy decision‑making. These factors collectively keep near‑term risk appetite subdued, resulting in an Underweight view on the Japanese market. Recent economic data show modest improvement&mdash;Q4 GDP was revised up to an annualized 1.3%, manufacturing and services PMIs improved in February, and real wages rose for the first time in 13 months. However, domestic demand remains soft, and consumer confidence has yet to recover sufficiently to drive broader economic expansion. While Japan&rsquo;s economy is not deteriorating, the recovery pace remains gradual and insufficient to offset external geopolitical and energy risks. Policy stability following Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae&rsquo;s election victory supports continuity in fiscal measures, tax reforms, and strategic industry investment, including AI and semiconductors. Nonetheless, the timeline for these long‑term initiatives to translate into corporate earnings remains uncertain. Rising Sino‑Japanese trade frictions and China&rsquo;s tightening of export controls on dual‑use technologies also highlight persistent supply‑chain vulnerabilities. In the absence of a clear easing in geopolitical and energy pressures, Japan&rsquo;s near‑term upside remains limited, and market performance is expected to remain in a weak, range‑bound pattern. Should geopolitical risks subside and energy prices stabilize, long‑term structural reforms may regain market relevance.

🇨🇳 China &amp; Hong Kong &ndash; Neutral AI developments and mixed macro trends shape a cautious but balanced outlook
The China and Hong Kong markets remain rated Neutral. AI and technology continue to play a meaningful role in shaping investor sentiment. China&rsquo;s high‑profile showcase of humanoid robotics and AI capabilities during the Spring Festival Gala signals strong policy commitment to AI‑driven industrial upgrading. In Hong Kong, AI‑related listings such as Zhipu and MiniMax remain in focus. MiniMax reported revenue growth but still requires time to validate earnings visibility and valuation, reflecting an industry transitioning from conceptual narratives to commercial implementation. Macro and policy signals remain mixed. CPI turned positive in January and rose to a three‑year high in February; PPI declines have narrowed; and manufacturing activity&mdash;both official and private&mdash;has improved materially. These trends suggest some recovery in production and exports, though sustainability depends on external demand and domestic consumption. Internal demand remains soft as household deleveraging continues. Policy remains mildly accommodative, with the PBoC lowering rates on selective structural tools and housing‑related measures supporting localized stabilization, although inventory pressure persists. Externally, heightened Middle East tensions have lifted global oil prices. China raised domestic fuel price caps accordingly, indicating that imported energy shocks are beginning to filter into local production costs. While China&rsquo;s diversified energy sourcing provides some buffer, prolonged high oil prices could weigh on corporate profitability and risk appetite. Overall, AI‑related progress and improving macro indicators offer selective support, but uncertainties around policy implementation, domestic-demand recovery, and geopolitical risks justify maintaining a Neutral stance. Short‑term performance is likely to remain range‑bound.

Asia &ndash; Slightly Negative Geopolitical‑driven energy risks dominate, overshadowing tech‑sector resilience
Escalating U.S./Israel&ndash;Iran tensions remain the largest external risk for Asia ex‑Japan. Given heavy reliance on imported energy, rising oil prices pose immediate challenges for many Asian economies. Sustained high energy costs would pressure corporate profitability, weaken industrial activity, influence monetary policy paths, and disrupt capital flows. As such, near‑term risk appetite is subdued, and the region is assessed as Underweight. Despite this, AI and semiconductor‑driven structural demand continues to provide support in South Korea and Taiwan. Both markets benefit from strong global chip demand, AI infrastructure spending, and robust technology capital flows. KOSPI&rsquo;s brief move above 6,000 and Taiwan&rsquo;s strongest January export growth in 16 years highlight continued sector resilience. However, market performance remains highly concentrated in technology, with limited improvement across other industries and consumption sectors, resulting in uneven and fragile market breadth. On the macro and policy front, the region is increasingly divergent. South Korea&rsquo;s inflation pressures have eased, and the Philippines has signaled potential room for rate cuts&mdash;both supportive developments. Conversely, Australia and New Zealand continue to face elevated inflation and maintain a more cautious policy stance. Indonesia experienced market volatility following an MSCI‑related warning, underscoring the unevenness in capital flows and sentiment. Overall, Asia ex‑Japan faces limited near‑term upside due to rising energy costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and mixed regional macro conditions. The market is expected to remain weak and range‑bound until geopolitical tensions ease and energy prices stabilize.
－ The End －

2026年3月投資展望：美國-中性｜歐洲-中性｜日本-偏弱｜中國及香港-中性｜亞洲-偏弱
全球市場近期持續受到美國／以色列與伊朗衝突升溫所帶動的能源與地緣政治風險干擾，整體風險偏好仍偏審慎。美國方面，短期情緒受外圍風險與政策不確定性壓制，但 AI 相關的中長期成長主線仍具韌性；歐洲基本面逐步改善、政策環境相對穩定，但能源依賴度高使其上行空間受限；日本因對中東原油依賴度極高，市場對能源衝擊特別敏感，短期動能偏弱；中港市場在 AI 概念帶動下具部分支撐，但內需修復與政策落地仍需觀察，外圍油價變動亦增添波動；亞洲（日本除外）同樣受能源價格與地緣局勢牽動，即使南韓與台灣科技鏈維持強勢，區內漲勢仍呈現結構性不均。整體而言，全球市場短期仍以區間震盪為主，後續走勢將取決於地緣局勢緩和、能源價格回穩及各地政策推進節奏。
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🇺🇸美國 &ndash;&nbsp;中性 地緣與政策風險升溫，短期抑制美股情緒；AI 長線成長主軸依然穩固
美國股市在現階段仍被評估為&nbsp;中性，其核心原因在於短期外部風險不斷累積，但中長期結構性成長動能並未改變。從基本面來看，美國人工智慧及科技產業的增長邏輯仍具韌性，多家重量級科技企業近期公布的財報與前瞻指引均展現健康動能。無論是 AI 模型訓練的算力需求、雲端平台收入的加速、晶片與伺服器基礎設施投資的擴張，或是大型企業持續提高 AI 資本開支，都反映出人工智慧已成為推動美國經濟與企業盈利的主要結構性引擎，其產業鏈的長期上行趨勢仍未出現實質性逆轉。
然而，短期內影響市場風險偏好的因素依然不容忽視。近期中東局勢明顯升溫，伊朗相關衝突引發的地緣政治風險推動了油價上行，同時也提升了市場的避險需求。油價上漲不僅增加能源成本，亦有機會重新推高通脹預期，對企業利潤及消費者支出形成潛在壓力。此外，美國貿易與關稅政策的方向再度出現不確定性，企業面臨的供應鏈調整成本、進口原材料價格以及跨境營運安排皆可能因政策變動而受到影響，進而壓抑整體投資意願。
在政策方面，能源價格上升與通脹黏性使市場對聯儲局降息時點的期待明顯後延。減息預期的弱化，令市場在短期內缺乏具體的政策催化劑，投資者因而更傾向維持觀望態度。雖然當前並無足以扭轉中長期趨勢的負面因素，但在多重不明朗情緒交織下，美股短期走勢較大可能呈現&nbsp;震盪整固，而非快速突破先前高位。
展望後市，若地緣政治風險逐步降溫、政策訊號明朗化，以及通脹壓力逐步回落，市場對風險資產的接受程度有望回升。屆時，人工智慧與科技板塊憑藉其清晰的成長路徑與持續擴張的實際需求，仍有機會重新成為帶動美國股市的核心成長主線。
🇪🇺歐洲 &ndash;&nbsp;中性 歐洲經濟逐步改善提供基礎支撐，惟能源與地緣風險持續制約市場上行空間
歐洲股市在當前環境下仍被評估為&nbsp;中性。從基本面觀察，歐元區整體經濟環境已較前期穩定。通脹壓力逐步回落、消費者信心自低位改善，加上中長期通脹預期基本保持穩定，均顯示區內宏觀環境正循序回穩。此外，近期歐洲多項經濟數據亦呈現改善跡象。服務業與製造業活動均較早前回暖，而德國作為區內最大經濟體，其景氣復甦對整體歐元區經濟具有高度指標性，其改善趨勢亦為市場情緒帶來一定支持。 在政策層面，歐洲市場目前仍受惠於相對具穩定性的金融環境。隨着通脹趨勢緩和與經濟增長回穩，歐洲央行延續漸進、審慎的政策取向，有助維持較具支持性的借貸與融資環境，從而支撐企業投資與整體經濟活動。多個歐洲主要國家亦持續推動監管簡化、產業轉型與投資環境優化政策，反映區內政策重心仍放在增強競爭力、提升資本吸引力與確保增長穩定，並為市場提供具一定穩定性的政策框架。 然而，短期內仍不可忽視來自外部的壓力。中東地緣政治局勢加速升溫，伊朗相關衝突推升油氣價格，對能源進口依賴度較高的歐洲經濟體構成明顯衝擊。能源成本上升可能進一步壓縮企業利潤率，尤其對工業與製造業的負面影響較為直接，恐削弱原本溫和回穩的經濟動能。同時，歐盟內部在針對中東相關議題上的立場與政策取向仍存分歧，增加了政策協調與風險管理方面的不確定性，也使市場在短期內較難從政策端獲得更明確的正面指引。 整體而言，雖然歐洲市場的中長期基本面並未轉弱，且經濟數據改善與政策支持仍對市場形成一定程度的下檔保護，但能源價格上行與持續的地緣政治風險仍是市場短期難以忽視的制約因素。在相關緊張局勢未獲明顯緩解之前，歐洲股市短期走勢預期仍以 區間震盪與整固 為主，上行空間相對有限。若地緣政治風險降低、能源市場回穩，則整體歐洲市場的復甦步伐及投資氣氛有望再度改善。 🇯🇵日本 &ndash;&nbsp;偏弱 戰事與能源風險升溫抑制日本市場，上行動能受限
目前，日本市場面臨的主要不確定性仍來自美國／以色列與伊朗之間的衝突升級風險。由於局勢高度動盪且難以預測，而日本約&nbsp;90% 的原油進口依賴中東地區，因此對能源價格的敏感度顯著高於其他主要已發展市場。若中東局勢進一步惡化並推升油價，日本企業的能源成本將面臨加速上行壓力，進而壓縮企業盈利能力，尤其對製造業與依賴能源輸入的產業影響更為明顯。能源價格上漲亦可能加大政策制定的難度，使政府在穩增長、控物價與維持財政紀律之間面臨更高權衡。基於上述外部風險，日本市場的短期風險偏好仍受到明顯抑制，整體觀點因此維持偏弱。
雖然如此，日本近期部分經濟指標表現略有改善。第四季 GDP 自先前估值上修至&nbsp;年化 1.3%，反映企業投資與出口活動具一定支撐；製造業與服務業 PMI 在 2 月亦呈現回升，顯示商業活動較前期好轉；同時，1 月實質工資增長錄得&nbsp;13 個月以來首次正值，為家庭部門購買力帶來初步改善跡象。然而，整體內需動能仍然偏弱，消費復甦的持續力道仍需觀察，家庭部門信心尚未恢復至足以帶動更廣泛的經濟擴張。整體而言，日本經濟並未惡化，但復甦節奏仍屬溫和，尚不足以抵銷外部地緣政治與能源價格風險帶來的壓力。
政策與政治因素雖具一定穩定性，但短期支撐市場的效果有限。首相高市早苗的勝選強化政策連續性，使財政支持措施、稅務改革以及戰略產業投資（如 AI、半導體）具備延續的基礎。然而，這些長期產業政策能否快速轉化為企業獲利與市場實際表現，仍存在不確定性。同時，中日經貿摩擦升溫、中國近期收緊部分涉及雙用途技術的出口管制政策，再次凸顯日本在供應鏈安全方面所面臨的結構性風險，對企業投入與產能配置構成潛在挑戰。
綜合來看，儘管日本經濟有初步改善跡象，政策環境亦相對穩定，但中東衝突升溫及能源價格飆升所帶來的外部風險仍主導市場情緒。在地緣政治與能源壓力未見明顯緩和前，日本市場上行空間相對受限，短期表現更可能呈現偏弱與&nbsp;區間震盪&nbsp;格局。若後續國際緊張局勢逐步降溫，能源價格企穩，日本長線改革與戰略產業投資才有望為市場帶來更具持續性的支持。
🇨🇳中國香港 &ndash;&nbsp;中性 AI 與基本面變化共同影響風險偏好，中港市場維持中性評級
對於中國及香港市場，目前仍維持&nbsp;中性觀點。人工智慧與科技產業的發展，持續在區內的市場情緒中扮演關鍵角色。中國在春晚中展示人形機械人及相關 AI 技術，象徵官方在智能製造與 AI 應用領域的政策方向明確，意圖推動科技自立與製造業升級。香港方面，Zhipu、MiniMax 等新經濟類 AI 企業保持市場關注度，其中 MiniMax 最新財報顯示收入增長，但盈利能見度與估值合理性尚待時間檢驗。整體而言，AI 產業仍處於由概念階段向商業化落地逐步過渡的進程，其成果能否帶動廣泛企業盈利仍需觀察。
從宏觀與政策面來看，訊號呈現一定程度的複雜性。中國 1 月 CPI 年增轉正、2 月更升至三年高位，PPI 跌幅收窄，製造業與工廠活動於年初加速，2 月民間製造業 PMI 升至逾五年新高，顯示生產端與出口動能有所改善。然而，該趨勢能否延續，仍取決於外需走勢及內需修復的可持續性。內需方面，居民部門槓桿調整仍在進行，消費意願恢復節奏相對溫和。政策端則展現溫和寬鬆傾向。人民銀行下調部分結構性政策工具利率，市場普遍預期年內仍有定向寬鬆空間。房地產市場方面，政策支持促成局部企穩，但去庫存壓力依舊明顯，居民購房意願回升的持續性仍需時間驗證。
外圍風險亦成為影響市場的重要變數。中東局勢升溫推動國際油價攀升，中國同步上調成品油價格上限，反映外部能源衝擊已開始向本地生產成本傳導。雖然中國較高原油庫存水平與能源來源多元化在短期內提供一定緩衝，但若地緣政治風險持續升級，能源成本上行可能削弱企業利潤空間，對風險偏好形成壓力。加上全球資金風險偏好周期性轉變，均可能影響中港市場的短期資金流向。
綜合而言，AI 發展方向明確且部分宏觀數據改善為市場提供一定支撐，但政策落地節奏、內需修復強度及外部地緣風險仍使中港市場短期前景保持謹慎。在這些因素未獲明顯改善前，中港市場表現較可能呈現&nbsp;區間波動與震盪格局。未來走勢將取決於政策實施力度、企業盈利修復情況，以及中東局勢與國際油價走勢等外部變量的發展。
亞洲 &ndash;&nbsp;偏弱 美伊以衝突升溫壓制亞洲表現，能源風險主導區內市場偏弱走勢
美國／以色列與伊朗之間衝突升級的風險，當前仍是影響亞洲市場的最主要外部不確定性來源。由於戰事走向難以預測，能源價格及通脹預期持續承受上行壓力，使依賴能源進口的亞洲多數經濟體面臨直接衝擊。若油價在高位維持更長時間，企業營運成本將被推升，工業活動或面臨放緩壓力，同時也可能透過擠壓利潤、推升輸入型通脹等渠道，影響貨幣政策取向，並對區內資本流動造成干擾。基於外圍局勢高度不穩，亞洲市場短期風險偏好料將受抑，因此整體觀點維持偏弱。
雖然如此，區內市場仍受益於人工智慧與半導體產業鏈的結構性需求。南韓和台灣持續受惠於全球晶片需求回升、AI 基建擴張以及科技相關資金流入，KOSPI 一度突破 6,000 點、台灣 1 月出口錄得逾 16 年以來最快增速，反映科技板塊仍具韌性。然而，區內市場漲幅高度集中於科技領域，其餘產業與消費復甦並未同步改善，顯示科技強勢雖能提供部分支撐，但其力量難以完全抵消地緣與能源風險帶來的壓力，使整體市場回升的廣度與可持續性仍顯有限。
宏觀與政策環境在亞洲各地短期內亦呈現明顯分化。部分市場通脹趨勢更為溫和，如南韓物價壓力紓緩、菲律賓政策制定者表達未來降息的可能性，使政策環境對風險資產更具支持性；然而，澳洲與紐西蘭通脹維持高位，使兩地央行保持偏緊或更為審慎的政策態度。印尼市場亦因 MSCI 相關警示而出現波動，反映資金流向與市場信心在區內仍非一致性改善。
整體而言，在能源價格持續上行、地緣政治風險加劇以及亞洲內部經濟與政策環境呈現分化的背景下，亞洲短期內向上動能有限，市場走勢較可能仍以&nbsp;偏弱與區間震盪&nbsp;為主。未來表現將取決於能源價格是否回落、地緣緊張是否降溫，以及科技產業鏈是否能為區內經濟提供更廣泛且持續的支持。
－&nbsp;結束－