The GUM MPF Index reached 267 points in the first half of 2025, up 8.9%, with average member gains of HK$24,213—the strongest H1 performance since 2017. Which MPF fund categories shone brightest? And how to position for the second half? GUM Managing Director Michael and Director of Strategy & Investment Analysis Martin review the highlights and share forward-looking strategies.

Top-Performing MPF Categories in H1 and Key Drivers

MPF Hong Kong Equity Index-Tracking Funds and Active Hong Kong Equity Funds led the way, delivering 22.1% and 18.8% returns respectively.

Key catalysts included the early-year launch of China’s DeepSeek AI model, sparking a tech investment surge; a strong rebound in Hong Kong’s IPO market, topping global fundraising; and positive US-China trade developments in May-June, driving Hong Kong equity funds to the best H1 performance.

Strong H1 for China-HK Stocks: Hold into H2?

MPF China-Hong Kong equities performed robustly in H1, and we expect momentum to continue into the second half. The Hang Seng’s current P/E of just 15× remains attractive with room for growth. However, gains are likely to moderate—projected at around 4–5%, compared with over 20% in H1.

Q3 US Equities: Still Worth Watching?

US equities remain popular among MPF members. Despite a Q2 rebound, Trump-related policies have dented confidence. AI stays a long-term focus, but US stocks may face continued pressure in Q3—MPF members should monitor closely.

Fed Rate Cut Looming in Q3: Conservative MPF Member Strategies

Lower-risk members may consider modest allocations to bond funds for higher potential returns. MPF Conservative Funds remain a solid capital-preservation option despite expected rate cuts, though yields will ease with falling HIBOR. GUM anticipates MPF Conservative Funds to deliver around 2% by year-end.

Summary

The first half of 2025 delivered excellent MPF results for members. China-Hong Kong stocks retain upside potential in H2, albeit at a gentler pace, while conservative options provide stability.

With markets evolving, flexible allocation is essential. Unsure of your next step or want deeper MPF insights? Contact GUM’s MPF experts – we will analyse your needs and craft a tailored investment plan to keep your retirement savings growing steadily!