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<p>In the first quarter of 2026, the GUM MPF Performance Index fell to 280.7 points, representing a 2% decline, with an average loss of over HKD 6,500 per member. The positive momentum built over four consecutive rising quarters was abruptly halted by unexpected geopolitical shocks. GUM Chief Investment Officer Christopher breaks down the key factors behind MPF performance in the first quarter.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-luminous-vivid-amber-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-e58bcc8d5fb1f4f057cf664b2e77aeca">Escalating US–Iran Tensions Drive Risk‑Off Sentiment</h2>
<p>The market correction this quarter was mainly driven by a sudden escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran. Iran’s temporary blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggered market concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supply, pushing up inflation expectations and casting doubt over the previously anticipated pace of interest rate cuts. Amid rising uncertainty around inflation and interest rates, both equity and bond markets came under pressure simultaneously, this became a key reason for the weaker MPF performance during the quarter.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-luminous-vivid-amber-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-db2282e6e9c4731c53a5149d8bab288e">Diverging Fund Performances Call for More Strategic Allocation</h2>
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<p>Despite the overall market downturn, the impact of recent events varied across regions and asset classes.</p>
<p><strong>Asian Equity Funds</strong><br/>At the beginning of the year, Asian equity funds benefited from AI development and semiconductor demand, leading the market higher. However, given Asia’s heavy reliance on energy imports, supply disruptions and rising oil prices resulted in more pronounced pullbacks—illustrating a classic case of “the higher they rose, the harder they fell.”</p>
<p><strong>US Equity Funds</strong><br/>As an energy-exporting country, the US was relatively less affected by the Strait of Hormuz incident. Coupled with its weaker performance earlier in the year, US equities experienced comparatively milder declines during the market correction.</p>
<p><strong>Japanese and European Equity Funds</strong><br/>Japan and Europe are particularly sensitive to rising energy prices. Higher oil prices not only increase import costs but also fuel inflationary pressures, posing challenges to economic growth prospects. As a result, equity markets in these regions also came under pressure.</p>
<p>With market volatility intensifying, both aggressive and conservative MPF members may need to reassess their investment strategies.</p>
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-luminous-vivid-amber-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2d441ee2e16358600ab0d5465f6f2d19">Summary</h2>
<div>The pullback in MPF performance during the first quarter of 2026 serves as a reminder that markets never move in a straight line. In an environment filled with uncertainty, MPF members should focus on a long‑term perspective complemented by appropriate risk management, rather than reacting to short‑term market fluctuations.</div>
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<div>To stay updated on the latest MPF developments or to learn more about MPF investment strategies and market insights, contact GUM’s experts today to build a plan that keeps your retirement savings growing steadily.</div>

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<p>2026年首季GUM強積金表現指數280.7點，下跌2%，人均虧損超過6,500元，原本連升四季的好勢頭，因突如其來的地緣政治衝擊而被打斷！今集【強積GUM日睇】，由GUM首席投資總監Christopher為大家拆解首季 MPF 表現背後的關鍵因素。</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-luminous-vivid-amber-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-720cf5802e153d2ee34ee46861f80018">美伊局勢升溫　市場避險情緒急升</h2>
<p>本季市場調整，主要受美國與伊朗局勢突然升級影響。 伊朗一度封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，觸發市場對能源供應中斷的憂慮，並推高通脹預期，令原本市場憧憬的減息步伐蒙上陰影。 在通脹與利率不確定性上升下，股票及債券市場同步受壓，成為 MPF 表現轉弱的關鍵原因。</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-luminous-vivid-amber-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-733a2f4d1b890dd78f3c125161dc4b19">不同基金表現分化　部署更考策略</h2>
<p>雖然整體市場向下，但不同地區及資產類別的基金，受今次事件影響程度並不一致。</p>
<p><strong>亞洲股票基金</strong><br/>年初受惠於 AI 發展帶動及半導體需求，亞洲股票基金一度領漲。不過，亞洲地區高度依賴能源進口，在能源供應受阻及油價上升的情況下，回調幅度亦較明顯，可說是「升得多、跌得亦急」。</p>
<p><strong>美國股票基金</strong><br/>美國作為能源出口國，受霍爾木茲海峽事件影響相對較小，加上年初表現本來落後，今次調整中的跌幅相對溫和。</p>
<p><strong>日本及歐洲股票基金</strong><br/>日本及歐洲對能源價格上升特別敏感，油價上升不但加重進口成本，亦可能推高通脹，為經濟增長前景帶來壓力，因此表現同樣受壓。</p>
<p>在波動加劇的環境下，進取型與保守型成員的部署思路亦值得重新檢視。</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-luminous-vivid-amber-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-7095b38fc9a739b4844a9bf2cd52379b">總結</h2>
<p>2026 年首季 MPF 表現回落，提醒我們市場從來不會「只升不跌」。在充滿不確定性的環境下，強積金成員更應以長線視角配合合適的風險管理，而非追逐短期升跌。</p>
<p>想緊貼最新MPF資訊，或了解更多 MPF 投資策略及最新市場分析？聯絡GUM專業團隊，讓我們的MPF專家為你度身訂造最適合的投資方案，讓強積金繼續為你的退休生活穩步增值吧！</p>

MPF Q1 Turns to a HKD 6,000 Loss!? US–Iran Conflict Drags Down Both Stocks and Bonds | A Complete Breakdown of MPF Performance in Q1 2026 |【GUM MPF Snapshot】

MPF 首季反轉蝕6千!? 美伊戰爭拖冧股債｜2026年首季MPF全面拆解｜【強積GUM日睇】

美伊局勢升溫 市場避險情緒急升

不同基金表現分化 部署更考策略

總結

與專家聯絡

美伊局勢升溫　市場避險情緒急升

不同基金表現分化　部署更考策略