GUM: MPF achieves a new high post-COVID, with an average earnings of $22,869; a record-breaking $17.8 billion switched in U.S. stocks, total value of U.S. Equities surpasses Hong Kong Equities

Jan 3, 2025
Reading Time: 11 minutes

【Hong Kong, January 3, 2025】 – GUM released the Q4 2024 MPF performance report today. Year-to-date until December 27, the “GUM MPF Composite Index” rose by 9.3%, reaching 246.5 points; the “GUM MPF Equity Fund Index” increased by 14.2%, reaching 335.4 points; the “GUM MPF Mixed Asset Fund Index” rose by 7.6%, reaching 247.5 points; and the “GUM MPF Fixed Income Fund Index” went up by 2.3%, reaching 128.5 points. The average earnings per member year-to-date are HK$22,869, marking the highest since post-2020. This year’s total MPF return has significantly increased from the 3.5% recorded in 2023.

Overall Review and Outlook

From the beginning of 2024 to now, the overall performance of the MPF has been better than in previous years, with all three major asset class indices of GUM MPF recording positive returns, with the equity fund index growing by more than 10%. Despite a significant adjustment in the U.S. market in August due to a sell-off in Japan, U.S. stock funds still rose over 20% for the year, maintaining an upward trend for two consecutive years. For Hong Kong and China stocks, due to economic stimulus measures from Beijing, Hong Kong and China stock funds surged in September, with the annual increase nearly matching that of U.S. stock funds. Although there were signs of profit-taking after October, the Hang Seng Index remained above 20,000 points, ending three years of decline. Additionally, the U.S. presidential election results indicate that Trump will return to the White House, leading market predictions to expect a slower pace of interest rate cuts, putting pressure on bond funds.

Outlook for 2025, GUM’s Managing Director, Michael Chan noted: “The year 2024 was the best year for the MPF since 2020, with both equites and bonds rising, achieving a year-to-date return of over 9%. This upward trend is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2025. In 2025, global markets will be influenced by Trump’s policies, with geopolitical issues and tariffs affecting the investment climate. For China, it is believed that the central government’s policies will become more proactive and effective to maintain stable economic growth. Investors should avoid concentrating their investments in a single market, and low-risk members might consider conservative funds to secure stable returns.”

GUM’s Strategy and Investment Analyst, Martin Wan, pointed out, “Over the past three years, the net transfer amount of the MPF has been climbing year by year, reaching HKD 46.3 billion from the beginning of the year to now, indicating that members are increasingly proactive in managing their MPF. U.S. equity funds have attracted the most capital, amounting to HKD 17.8 billion, accounting for 38% of the total transfer amount. With an average performance of 23%, U.S. equity funds have outperformed all other equity fund categories, continuing to yield rich returns for actively managed members.”

Table 1: Overall Performance of MPF and Average Return

IndexValue2024 YTD Return (%)December Return (%)
GUM MPF Composite Index246.59.3%-0.3%
GUM MPF Equity Fund Index336.414.2%0.1%
GUM MPF Mixed Asset Fund Index247.57.6%-1.0%
GUM MPF Fixed Income Fund Index128.52.3%-0.2%
Average MPF Gain/Loss Per MemberNote 1 (HK$)+22,869-874

Figure 1: Analysis of Return in 2024 YTD

Equity Fund Performance

Table 2: Ranking of Equity Fund Performance According to 2024 YTD Return

RankingEquity Sub-category Fund Index2024 YTD Return (%)December 2024 (%)
1United States Equity Fund23.2%-1.5%
2Japanese Equity Fund20.4%1.9%
3Hong Kong Equity Fund (Index Tracking)20.0%3.3%
4Greater China Equity Fund16.2%3.3%
5Global Equity Fund15.3%-1.2%
6Hong Kong Equity Fund14.1%2.7%
7Asian Equity Fund9.9%-0.2%
8European Equity Fund-0.3%-1.6%
9Other Equity Fund-0.3%-5.7%

Mixed Asset Fund Performance

Table 3: Ranking of Mixed Asset Fund Performance According to 2024 YTD Return

RankingMixed Asset Sub-category Fund Index2024 YTD Return (%)December Return (%)
1Mixed Asset Fund – (>80-100% Equity)10.6%-0.4%
2Target-Date Fund10.6%-0.6%
3DIS Core Accumulation Fund10.0%-1.4%
4Mixed Asset Fund – (>60-80% Equity)7.3%-0.6%
5Dynamic Allocation Fund5.4%-0.9%
6Mixed Asset Fund – (>40-60% Equity)4.3%-1.2%
7DIS Age 65 Plus Fund3.1%-1.5%
8Mixed Asset Fund – (>20-40% Equity)1.4%-1.6%
9Other Mixed Asset0.9%-1.4%

Fixed Income Fund Performance

Table 4: Ranking of Fixed Income Fund Performance According to 2024 YTD Return

RankingFixed Income Sub-category Fund Index2024 YTD Return (%)December Return (%)
1HKD Money Market Fund3.6%0.0%
2MPF Conservative Fund3.6%0.2%
3Hong Kong Dollar Bond Fund2.3%-1.0%
4Guaranteed Fund2.1%-0.1%
5Asian Bond Fund1.6%-1.6%
6RMB Bond Fund1.4%-0.4%
7RMB & HKD Money Market Fund0.6%-0.4%
8Global Bond Fund-2.9%-2.4%

Analysis of Net Fund Switching

Figure 2: Net Fund Switching Over the Past 3 Years

In 2024, the net fund switching amount for MPF from January to November increased significantly by 38.8% compared to 2023, reaching HK$46.3 billion. This indicates that more members are actively managing their MPF accounts.

Figure 3: Estimated Net Transfer of MPF Asset Classes from the beginning of 2024 to Date

In August 2024, the unwinding of carry trades involving the Japanese Yen caused significant turbulence in global stock markets, leading to unusual changes in capital net flows. This event demonstrated that MPF members were closely adjusting their portfolios in response to market conditions.

By November, year-to-date, a total of HK$12.9 billion had flowed into fixed income funds, with HK$8.27 billion and HK$4.64 billion respectively exiting from mixed asset funds and equity funds.

Table 5: 2024 YTD Top 5 Net Switching In/Out of Asset Classes

Fund Category2024 YTD Net Switching In (in HKD million)Fund Category2024 YTD Net Switching Out (in HKD million)
United States Equity FundHK$17,832 Hong Kong Equity Fund(HK$9,139)
DIS Core Accumulation FundHK$7,818 Mixed Asset Fund – (>80-100% Equity)(HK$8,237)
MPF Conservative FundHK$6,982 Hong Kong Equity Fund (Index Tracking)(HK$7,248)
Global Bond FundHK$4,851 Mixed Asset Fund – (>60-80% Equity)(HK$6,190)
DIS Age 65 Plus FundHK$3,467 Greater China Equity Fund(HK$5,522)

(Data as of November 30 2024)  

Figure 4: Investment of Approved Constituent Funds: Equities by Geographical Region*

*For equities, geographical region reflects the place of primary listing of the equities.
Source: MPFA, data as of 30 June 2024

As of November, the five fund categories with the highest net outflows year-to-date are predominantly Hong Kong and China equity funds and mixed asset funds with a high equity component. In contrast, “U.S. Equity Funds” continue to be the category with the highest net inflows for the year, with HK$17.8 billion invested, and this category has also yielded the highest return among all MPF fund categories, growing approximately by 20%. The second category with the most significant net inflow is “DIS- Core Accumulation Fund,” which has also performed well within the mixed asset category, with an annual return exceeding 9%. Due to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and the impact of the August Japanese Yen unwind, there has been an inflow into “MPF Conservative Funds” and “Global Bond Funds,” making them the third and fourth largest categories for net inflows year-to-date, respectively. Lastly, it’s noteworthy that, when divided by region, the total value of investments in North American equities surpassed that of Hong Kong by June of this year.

Note:

  • The average MPF return per member is calculated using total MPF assets HK$1,297,727 millions of the previous month (as of 30 November 2024). The number of MPF Scheme members was 4,754,000 as of 31 December 2023. The GUM MPF Composite Index return for December 2024 as of December 27, 2024.
  • The growth rates of all fund indices are calculated based on asset-weighted, point-to-point returns. The December returns are from December 1, 2024 to December 27, 2024. The year-to-date returns are from January 1, 2024 to December 27, 2024.

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About GUM

GUM is a boutique consulting firm that provides solutions to corporate on MPF and employee benefits. We focus on people and that is why we put “U” in the very core of our brand “GUM”.  Our priorities are always meeting the needs of our corporate clients and their employees, our strategic partners as well as all MPF members of Hong Kong. With our vast market experience and expert teams around actuarial, investment and employee communication, GUM leads the market to innovate, walking hand in hand with our clients to go faster and further.

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GUM 
Miss Carmen Tang/ Miss Karen Siu 
Phone: (852) 9126-9332 / (852) 6011-5603  
Email: carmentang@gumhk.com / karensiu@gumhk.com  
Website: www.gumhk.com

This document provided the information on an “AS IS” basis. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any of the information contained in this document. Some information contained in this document contains forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “expect” and similar expressions are also intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not historical facts. Rather, these forward-looking statements are based on the current beliefs, assumptions, expectations, estimates, and projections of our management. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict. Consequently, actual results could differ materially from those expressed, implied or forecasted in these forward-looking statements. Reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.